NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	116		Excitement	9.8 [91]		MVP	P.J. Washington (DAL): +69.2%
Dallas Mavericks	117		Comeback	12.1 [188]		LVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): -6.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chet Holmgren	0.40	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.4	0.06	0.35	0.01	15	66%	0.49	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.37	0.20	0.16	-0.01	25	63%	0.37	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.01
Isaiah Joe	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	-0.00	7	79%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.09	0.12	-0.05	-0.02	16	63%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kenrich Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Giddey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	31%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	0.00	-0.02	0.05	10	48%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.07,0.28,0.28,0.69	0.69	0.04	0.65	-0.00	6	53%	0.69	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.05	-0.02	13	79%	0.25	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dereck Lively II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	6	80%	0.23	2	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01
Luka Doncic	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.03	0.02	15	78%	0.20	7	-0.16	7	100%	0.03
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,0.04,0.04,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.05	0.00	23	48%	0.10	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	38%	0.00	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.7	31.7	16.5	31.3	3.4	33.2	146.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -5.6%

DAL +54.2%

DAL +27.7%

OKC -27.7%

DAL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.7	14.5	120.8	120.6	113.9
season	13.9	14.3		117.1	116.1
opponent	14.5	14.7		113.8	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.6	16.2	15.0	14.9	15.1
DAL	14.8	14.5	13.2	16.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Wiggins	15	15	0.32	-0.82	1.15	0.00	11	-12	23	14.3	15.3	-0.96	16.4	14.4	2.01
Josh Giddey	21	19	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.11	2	-3	5	15.6	15.0	0.54	16.2	14.3	1.81
Cason Wallace	50	52	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-5	9	14.9	15.4	-0.47	14.2	15.3	-1.10
Kenrich Williams	5	6	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-4	7	23.6	14.7	8.92	15.3	14.7	0.67
Chet Holmgren	69	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.52	8	-9	17	14.6	16.6	-1.96	15.3	13.2	2.09
Luguentz Dort	60	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	5	-11	15.7	14.2	1.43	15.5	13.2	2.26
Isaiah Joe	61	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	5	-11	15.1	15.2	-0.04	13.1	17.5	-4.31
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	85	86	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.53	0	-1	1	15.3	13.9	1.40	14.8	14.0	0.79
Jalen Williams	77	77	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.51	-7	6	-13	14.5	17.9	-3.49	14.3	16.3	-2.08
Jaylin Williams	37	36	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.47	-14	13	-27	15.6	14.8	0.82	14.7	14.7	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dereck Lively II	61	61	1.16	-0.66	1.81	0.39	26	-25	51	14.4	15.2	-0.83	14.2	16.9	-2.69
Derrick Jones Jr.	82	82	0.97	-0.47	1.45	0.44	18	-17	35	14.0	18.8	-4.85	15.8	11.2	4.60
P.J. Washington	59	58	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.51	8	-7	15	14.6	14.8	-0.23	15.7	14.4	1.29
Luka Doncic	90	88	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.42	7	-6	13	14.6	16.4	-1.86	15.1	15.4	-0.25
Kyrie Irving	85	84	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.49	2	-1	3	14.3	17.4	-3.10	15.3	14.1	1.21
Tim Hardaway Jr.	11	11	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.04	-7	8	-15	17.5	14.3	3.21	16.3	15.0	1.27
Josh Green	38	38	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.06	-9	10	-19	15.7	14.1	1.66	14.4	15.7	-1.29
Jaden Hardy	23	23	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.03	-15	16	-31	16.5	14.1	2.39	11.7	16.2	-4.48
Daniel Gafford	36	35	-0.66	1.16	-1.81	0.08	-25	26	-51	15.2	14.4	0.83	16.9	14.2	2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.36,0.28,0.22,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.26,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.19,0.41,0.41,0.22,0.45,0.63,0.78,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.78,0.68,0.74,1	91.0%
CLE 83, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.27,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.55,0.76,0.96,1	90.8%
BKN 94, WAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.77,0.91,1	90.8%