WNBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

inpredictable

WNBA Win Probability Box Scores

winProb
fourFactors
pace
clutch

Minnesota Lynx	80		Excitement	7.9 [30]		MVP	Kayla McBride (MIN): +39.4%
Washington Mystics	78		Comeback	2.5 [29]		LVP	Aerial Powers (MIN): -4.5%

Minnesota Lynx
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kayla McBride	0.39	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.17,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39	0.18	0.17	-0.05	19	60%	0.42	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jessica Shepard	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16,0.2,0.18	0.02	0.16	-0.01	8	56%	0.24	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Tiffany Mitchell	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.14	-0.02	0.16	-0.00	9	53%	0.30	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Napheesa Collier	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.09	-0.03	10	61%	0.27	5	-0.15	8	87%	0.03
Lindsay Allen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	4	60%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rachel Banham	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikolina Milic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorka Juhász	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Aerial Powers	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Mystics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brittney Sykes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,0.24	0.24	-0.03	0.23	-0.04	10	40%	0.26	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ariel Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.02	0.00	13	69%	0.23	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shakira Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.08	0.01	10	58%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Natasha Cloud	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	-0.04	0.04	12	52%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Myisha Hines-Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	5	33%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Elena Delle Donne	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	12	43%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Li Meng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tianna Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	WAS	WNBA	MIN	WAS	WNBA
this game	15.4	14.6	14.8	97.6	100.0	101.2
season	14.6	14.9		98.2	99.1
opponent	14.6	15.2		99.4	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.6	14.2	14.5	16.4	15.4
WAS	16.5	15.9	13.4	12.9	14.6

Clutch Shooting Report

	Shot Distribution				Effective FG%
	Garbage	Normal	Clutch	Clutch²	Garbage	Normal	Clutch	Clutch²
MIN	0%	83%	14%	3.2%	0.0%	45.2%	88.9%	50.0%
WAS	0%	75%	23%	2.8%	0.0%	46.2%	40.6%	75.0%
average	15%	73%	11%	1.0%	46.4%	46.6%	45.9%	37.5%

Clutch Shooting Boxscore

Minnesota Lynx
Player	Garbage		Normal		Clutch		Clutch²
Player	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%
Kayla McBride	0	0%	15	47%	4	100%	0	0%
Jessica Shepard	0	0%	5	20%	3	100%	0	0%
Tiffany Mitchell	0	0%	7	50%	0	0%	2	50%
Napheesa Collier	0	0%	10	50%	0	0%	0	0%
Lindsay Allen	0	0%	4	62%	0	0%	0	0%
Rachel Banham	0	0%	4	75%	0	0%	0	0%
Nikolina Milic	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Dorka Juhász	0	0%	4	37%	2	50%	0	0%
Aerial Powers	0	0%	3	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Lynx	0	0%	52	45%	9	89%	2	50%

Washington Mystics
Player	Garbage		Normal		Clutch		Clutch²
Player	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%	FGA	eFG%
Brittney Sykes	0	0%	7	36%	2	0%	1	150%
Ariel Atkins	0	0%	9	72%	3	83%	1	0%
Shakira Austin	0	0%	7	43%	3	67%	0	0%
Natasha Cloud	0	0%	9	67%	3	0%	0	0%
Myisha Hines-Allen	0	0%	3	0%	2	50%	0	0%
Elena Delle Donne	0	0%	11	27%	1	100%	0	0%
Li Meng	0	0%	3	50%	1	0%	0	0%
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough	0	0%	2	50%	1	0%	0	0%
Tianna Hawkins	0	0%	2	50%	0	0%	0	0%
Mystics	0	0%	53	46%	16	41%	2	75%