NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	1.8 [504]		MVP	Desmond Bane (ORL): +21.0%
Philadelphia 76ers	109		Comeback	1.3 [701]		LVP	Paolo Banchero (ORL): -27.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0.21	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.19	0.05	0.03	16	79%	0.36	5	-0.15	11	91%	0.04
Anthony Black	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	8	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.05
Franz Wagner	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	11	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goga Bitadze	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Cain	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Jalen Suggs	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	9	21%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Paolo Banchero	-0.27	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.18	-0.12	-0.03	22	36%	-0.11	6	-0.17	6	67%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.03	12	73%	0.19	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.04	0.04	8	78%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	25	53%	0.22	3	-0.11	8	75%	0.01
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.02	16	44%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
VJ Edgecombe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	16	51%	0.14	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Adem Bona	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dominick Barlow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.9	0.0	35.7	0.0	37.6	0.0	32.0	0.0
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +39.1%

ORL -0.5%

ORL -2.3%

PHI +10.1%

PHI +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	PHI	NBA	ORL	PHI	NBA
this game	13.4	15.7	14.2	98.0	110.1	113.4
season	14.2	14.5		112.0	112.7
opponent	14.1	14.2		113.7	111.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.9	12.2	13.8	12.6	13.4
PHI	13.6	16.1	15.6	17.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goga Bitadze	55	57	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-12	12	14.3	12.2	2.09	15.0	16.6	-1.61
Jamal Cain	59	59	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-10	8	14.4	11.9	2.50	14.7	17.1	-2.36
Tristan da Silva	56	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-8	4	14.2	12.3	1.92	15.0	16.5	-1.50
Franz Wagner	94	94	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	-5	-2	13.4	12.2	1.23	15.8	13.4	2.39
Jalen Suggs	91	91	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-4	-4	13.4	12.9	0.53	15.5	17.4	-1.86
Wendell Carter Jr.	83	83	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.12	-13	1	-14	13.9	10.7	3.19	15.0	18.9	-3.90
Desmond Bane	99	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	13.4	0.0	13.36	15.7	0.0	15.67
Anthony Black	84	84	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	-1	-10	13.6	12.0	1.61	15.7	15.5	0.16
Paolo Banchero	88	89	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	1	-14	13.7	10.4	3.38	15.4	18.0	-2.60

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	99	98	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	0	12	15.7	0.0	15.67	13.5	3.0	10.47
Kelly Oubre Jr.	99	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	15.7	0.0	15.67	13.4	0.0	13.36
Tyrese Maxey	99	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	15.7	0.0	15.67	13.4	0.0	13.36
VJ Edgecombe	89	87	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.19	9	3	6	15.5	16.9	-1.37	13.7	10.7	2.97
Paul George	98	98	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.17	9	3	6	15.6	25.0	-9.43	13.5	1.0	12.49
Quentin Grimes	68	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	4	4	15.0	17.1	-2.08	14.4	10.9	3.53
Adem Bona	50	52	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	10	-8	15.6	15.7	-0.05	14.3	12.3	1.99
Dominick Barlow	59	60	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	14	-16	14.9	16.8	-1.94	14.5	11.6	2.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.62,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.91,1	94.1%
POR 87, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.99,1,1	93.7%
ORL 108, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.96,1	93.6%