NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	8.5 [250]		MVP	Zach LaVine (CHI): +40.6%
Toronto Raptors	105		Comeback	22.4 [34]		LVP	Gary Trent Jr. (TOR): -13.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach LaVine	0.41	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.41	0.18	0.26	0.03	22	66%	0.49	4	-0.09	15	87%	0.08
DeMar DeRozan	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.23	0.06	0.17	-0.00	19	53%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Alex Caruso	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.11	-0.00	8	56%	0.14	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Coby White	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.00	-0.02	4	112%	0.10	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.01	5	30%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	12	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	14	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25	0.25	0.08	0.14	-0.03	22	58%	0.33	3	-0.08	11	45%	-0.25
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	4	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	22	52%	0.12	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.02
Scottie Barnes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	13	58%	0.12	2	-0.10	7	57%	-0.08
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.G. Anunoby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	13	38%	-0.03	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.04
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	4	70%	0.08	5	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	7	14%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.8	30.0	14.0	33.2	3.5	44.5	150.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +25.3%

CHI +28.3%

TOR -36.7%

CHI +33.9%

TOR -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	14.5	15.2	14.4	112.4	108.2	113.4
season	14.1	14.7		112.0	114.0
opponent	14.5	14.9		112.2	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.7	15.5	14.5	13.0	14.5
TOR	14.1	15.2	13.2	18.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach LaVine	80	81	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.37	11	-7	18	14.2	15.5	-1.30	15.7	12.8	2.90
Alex Caruso	63	64	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-4	12	14.7	14.0	0.70	14.9	15.8	-0.93
Patrick Beverley	50	51	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.55	-1	5	-6	15.9	12.9	2.99	15.5	15.0	0.45
DeMar DeRozan	80	78	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.57	-4	8	-12	14.4	14.6	-0.16	15.0	16.3	-1.34
Nikola Vucevic	79	79	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.54	-6	10	-16	14.9	12.4	2.54	14.6	18.0	-3.39
Andre Drummond	9	8	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	0	4	13.0	14.6	-1.60	20.0	14.8	5.19
Derrick Jones Jr.	9	10	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.14	6	-2	8	11.8	14.7	-2.95	16.4	15.1	1.30
Ayo Dosunmu	12	12	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	6	-8	12.8	14.7	-1.85	17.6	14.9	2.68
Patrick Williams	54	53	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.21	3	1	2	13.5	15.7	-2.19	14.6	16.0	-1.40
Coby White	49	49	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.16	1	3	-2	14.6	14.4	0.20	15.2	15.3	-0.15

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	4	3	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-4	4	17.0	15.2	1.84	14.0	14.5	-0.47
Chris Boucher	15	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-1	-2	13.5	15.5	-2.02	14.2	14.5	-0.32
Jakob Poeltl	75	75	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-10	16	14.1	19.0	-4.87	14.9	12.8	2.12
Precious Achiuwa	19	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.12	-9	5	-14	19.0	14.3	4.68	13.1	14.8	-1.65
Pascal Siakam	84	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.56	6	-10	16	15.1	16.0	-0.88	15.0	10.4	4.61
Gary Trent Jr.	32	33	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	5	-14	17.8	14.0	3.80	13.5	15.0	-1.47
O.G. Anunoby	86	84	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.42	-3	-1	-2	15.5	13.4	2.11	14.6	13.2	1.41
Fred VanVleet	87	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.39	-4	0	-4	14.9	18.3	-3.41	14.2	16.4	-2.17
Scottie Barnes	83	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	0	-4	14.9	17.5	-2.64	14.3	15.6	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.34,0.32,0.45,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 106, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.53,0.31,0.55,0.14,0.15,0	93.3%
POR 97, NOH 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.77,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	93.1%
SEA 84, LAC 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.31,0.36,0.14,0.16,0	92.9%