NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	9.2 [118]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +32.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	103		Comeback	7.3 [271]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -44.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.35,0.2,0.32,0.32	0.15	0.17	-0.01	23	69%	0.52	6	-0.19	8	87%	0.08
Andrew Wiggins	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	18	57%	0.21	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.04
Kevon Looney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Toscano-Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jordan Poole	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Mychal Mulder	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.45	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.45,-0.45	-0.18	-0.26	-0.00	5	17%	-0.08	6	-0.36	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.32,0.32	0.32	-0.02	0.32	-0.02	24	48%	0.39	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.05
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.22	0.22	0.04	0.18	0.00	17	51%	0.30	1	-0.09	9	67%	-0.05
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	5	83%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.11	0.00	12	58%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	14	35%	-0.08	2	-0.08	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	2.8	29.3	14.4	30.6	3.3	36.5	145.0
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -12.0%

GSW -1.1%

LAL +19.2%

LAL +41.3%

LAL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAL	NBA	GSW	LAL	NBA
this game	13.9	15.1	14.4	101.0	104.0	111.3
season	13.5	14.6		109.9	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.5		106.7	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	15.2	14.8	12.5	13.9
LAL	15.5	14.8	13.4	16.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mychal Mulder	46	45	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.24	0	-3	3	14.0	13.9	0.13	15.7	14.7	1.00
Kevon Looney	39	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-2	1	15.5	12.9	2.62	16.0	14.6	1.44
Stephen Curry	85	86	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-7	11	13.2	18.4	-5.22	14.9	16.5	-1.52
Juan Toscano-Anderson	54	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	4	-11	14.5	13.3	1.21	14.1	16.4	-2.28
Draymond Green	87	87	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-3	3	13.4	17.7	-4.32	15.0	16.5	-1.55
Andrew Wiggins	80	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-4	5	13.9	14.0	-0.06	15.6	13.3	2.26
Jordan Poole	53	54	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.49	-4	1	-5	14.2	13.7	0.47	15.4	14.8	0.54
Kent Bazemore	51	50	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.45	-8	5	-13	14.0	13.9	0.10	14.8	15.5	-0.69

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	30	29	1.12	-0.62	1.74	0.62	17	-14	31	14.5	15.4	-0.97	13.8	14.0	-0.17
LeBron James	69	70	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.53	13	-10	23	15.6	14.1	1.54	14.7	12.0	2.71
Alex Caruso	63	63	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	14.3	16.6	-2.31	14.0	13.8	0.18
Anthony Davis	89	88	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	1	1	15.1	15.9	-0.84	13.5	17.9	-4.45
Kyle Kuzma	48	47	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	-5	13	14.9	15.4	-0.52	14.1	13.8	0.38
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	68	67	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.25	-7	10	-17	15.4	14.5	0.91	13.5	15.0	-1.51
Talen Horton-Tucker	10	11	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	2	-1	15.9	15.1	0.84	17.9	13.5	4.45
Andre Drummond	34	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	4	-5	15.1	15.2	-0.08	13.9	14.0	-0.01
Montrezl Harrell	20	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	5	-7	14.6	15.3	-0.68	15.2	13.6	1.57
Dennis Schroder	64	64	-0.84	1.34	-2.18	-0.25	-20	23	-43	15.9	13.8	2.08	13.0	15.6	-2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.15,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.57,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.29,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 114, UTA 119	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.16,0.26,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.46,0.53,0.28,0.33,0.58,1	89.8%
CHI 82, PHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.59,0.29,0.23,0.42,1	89.7%
PHI 92, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.46,0.35,0.73,1	89.7%