NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	1.2 [1075]		MVP	Jud Buechler (DET): +6.3%
Detroit Pistons	72		Comeback	1.6 [445]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): -15.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.11	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	8	61%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	3	25%	0.00	1	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.01	0.04	11	69%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Otis Thorpe	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	62%	-0.02	3	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	40%	-0.00	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.00	-0.05	12	39%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	55%	0.00	3	-0.07	8	75%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	11	36%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	2	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	57%	-0.00	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.01
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0.02	11	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	-0.03	-0.05	21	45%	-0.03	4	-0.09	13	85%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.18	-0.01	-0.04	15	22%	-0.13	2	-0.02	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	2.6	32.5	18.6	36.7	1.8	28.4	149.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.7%

DET -4.6%

MIA +10.1%

DET -0.5%

MIA +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	13.8	15.2	93.8	75.0	101.7
season	15.7	14.1		101.2	104.2
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.0	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	15.4	16.5	16.5	16.0
DET	14.8	13.4	13.0	14.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	75	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.27	29	-10	39	16.5	14.6	1.82	13.7	14.1	-0.39
Clar. Weatherspoon	74	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.04	17	2	15	16.3	15.3	0.91	13.2	15.7	-2.56
Anthony Carter	81	79	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.05	17	2	15	15.9	16.6	-0.70	13.4	15.6	-2.25
Otis Thorpe	53	52	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.11	18	1	17	17.1	14.8	2.32	13.0	14.7	-1.69
Bruce Bowen	38	40	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	13	-7	16.2	15.9	0.28	14.5	13.3	1.21
Rodney Buford	32	31	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.10	8	11	-3	17.0	15.6	1.48	13.9	13.8	0.12
Alonzo Mourning	44	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	18	-17	14.8	17.1	-2.32	14.7	13.0	1.69
Mark Strickland	21	19	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.19	-5	24	-29	14.0	16.6	-2.54	14.5	13.6	0.85
P.J. Brown	23	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	17	-15	15.3	16.3	-0.91	15.7	13.2	2.56
Dan Majerle	44	44	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	17	-15	15.6	16.4	-0.74	13.7	13.9	-0.24

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	6	5	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-20	21	13.2	13.8	-0.67	13.2	16.2	-3.00
Loy Vaught	30	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.13	-6	-13	7	12.1	14.6	-2.51	14.6	16.7	-2.04
Christian Laettner	44	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-18	17	13.5	14.1	-0.58	16.8	15.4	1.46
Lindsey Hunter	68	70	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.19	3	-22	25	14.1	13.1	0.97	15.4	17.6	-2.20
Jerome Williams	37	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-17	15	13.8	13.8	-0.01	16.4	15.8	0.57
Jud Buechler	58	57	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	-8	-3	13.5	14.3	-0.78	16.4	15.5	0.92
Mikki Moore	31	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-14	9	14.1	13.6	0.45	14.7	16.7	-1.93
Jerry Stackhouse	78	80	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.18	-17	-2	-15	13.5	15.1	-1.56	15.9	16.9	-1.02
John Crotty	28	27	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.25	-22	3	-25	13.1	14.1	-0.97	17.6	15.4	2.20
Michael Curry	56	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.16	-10	-9	-1	14.5	12.8	1.74	15.9	16.2	-0.31
Terry Mills	44	42	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.19	-25	6	-31	15.2	12.6	2.52	17.2	15.1	2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 99, SAS 75	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
LAL 102, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
SEA 102, LAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%