NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	81		Excitement	5.1 [476]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +7.8%
San Antonio Spurs	87		Comeback	2.8 [342]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -17.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	10	65%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	17	55%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Sean Rooks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.18	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.16	-0.04	-0.02	19	40%	-0.14	2	-0.03	14	64%	-0.05
Kobe Bryant	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	17	52%	-0.00	7	-0.17	6	83%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	9	43%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	5	30%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	7	54%	-0.02	2	-0.05	14	64%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	24	48%	0.00	6	-0.11	4	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	31.2	19.3	25.3	1.8	42.2	147.8
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +27.1%

SAS +11.1%

SAS +5.2%

SAS +3.8%

SAS +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	17.0	15.8	91.0	97.8	99.6
season	14.9	15.9		104.7	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.8		92.7	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.1	16.2	16.8	14.6	15.3
SAS	16.6	19.8	18.3	14.2	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Reid	48	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-10	14	14.5	16.3	-1.75	17.0	17.1	-0.08
Sean Rooks	15	14	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.08	-7	1	-8	15.0	15.4	-0.39	14.9	17.4	-2.58
Derek Harper	25	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.06	-5	-1	-4	16.2	15.0	1.16	18.4	16.4	1.97
Derek Fisher	59	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.32	4	-10	14	14.7	16.6	-1.92	16.7	17.7	-1.04
Rick Fox	30	29	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	6	-18	17.0	14.5	2.48	17.7	16.7	0.97
Kobe Bryant	70	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-1	-4	14.7	17.8	-3.13	16.3	19.7	-3.44
Shaquille O'Neal	74	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-7	8	15.4	15.0	0.39	17.4	14.9	2.58
Robert Horry	41	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	4	-14	16.3	14.5	1.75	17.1	17.0	0.08
Glen Rice	83	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.41	0	-6	6	15.5	12.8	2.67	17.2	13.4	3.85

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	83	83	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.30	3	3	0	17.0	17.0	0.04	15.1	18.7	-3.58
David Robinson	53	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	5	-4	16.3	18.2	-1.90	15.9	14.5	1.34
Jaren Jackson	33	33	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	-4	14	16.9	17.1	-0.25	16.2	14.8	1.31
Antonio Daniels	14	16	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	-4	14	16.8	17.1	-0.29	17.6	14.8	2.73
Jerome Kersey	26	27	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	-1	8	17.3	16.9	0.39	17.1	14.5	2.56
Sean Elliott	63	62	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.28	-1	7	-8	16.9	17.3	-0.39	14.5	17.1	-2.56
Will Perdue	32	31	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	-2	10	17.4	16.8	0.53	14.0	16.1	-2.08
Avery Johnson	75	73	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.34	-4	10	-14	17.1	16.8	0.29	14.8	17.6	-2.73
Mario Elie	56	56	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.34	-4	10	-14	17.1	16.9	0.25	14.8	16.2	-1.31
Malik Rose	10	10	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	6	-6	20.0	16.7	3.34	18.7	14.9	3.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 76, UTA 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.41,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
HOU 96, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.9,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.2%
LAC 85, UTA 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.77,0.65,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%