NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	118		Excitement	11.8 [18]		MVP	Tyrese Haliburton (IND): +74.7%
Indiana Pacers	119		Comeback	433.8 [10]		LVP	Pascal Siakam (IND): -15.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent Jr.	0.53	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.45,0.58,0.87,0.53	0.15	0.38	0.00	25	63%	0.73	2	-0.19	2	50%	-0.01
AJ Green	0.32	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	79%	0.32	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jericho Sims	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Taurean Prince	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	18	39%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.01	17	59%	0.14	7	-0.24	17	65%	-0.05
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.12	-0.02	10	48%	-0.02	3	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.28,0.41,0.38,0.18,0.12,0.75	0.75	0.07	0.65	-0.02	22	54%	0.76	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.05
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.15	-0.01	15	63%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.12	0.00	11	66%	0.25	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.06
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.10	0.00	11	69%	0.23	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Ben Sheppard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.03
Jarace Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	0.02	-0.12	0.01	14	50%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	12	38%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	3.3	27.3	15.0	38.1	3.0	34.2	2.5	16.2	167.1
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	2.3	15.6	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +7.1%

IND +15.7%

MIL -22.6%

IND +32.5%

IND +17.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	14.4	14.4	107.3	111.2	113.1
season	14.4	13.9		114.2	115.3
opponent	14.7	14.3		112.9	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	14.6	14.5	14.6	17.9	11.9	14.9
IND	16.0	13.8	12.6	16.4	13.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Portis	78	77	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.01	2	-3	5	15.2	14.1	1.07	15.1	12.7	2.38
Brook Lopez	16	16	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-1	1	15.7	14.7	0.97	13.1	14.7	-1.56
Kyle Kuzma	29	27	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	0	-1	15.0	14.8	0.15	12.5	15.1	-2.58
Taurean Prince	10	9	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.06	-2	1	-3	12.3	15.1	-2.81	13.7	14.5	-0.85
Jericho Sims	26	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	2	-5	15.9	14.5	1.40	11.0	15.5	-4.45
AJ Green	94	93	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.52	6	-7	13	14.6	16.2	-1.63	15.0	11.1	3.89
Giannis Antetokounmpo	89	87	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	1	-3	14.6	15.9	-1.24	15.3	10.7	4.55
Kevin Porter Jr.	96	93	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.60	4	-5	9	15.2	12.5	2.70	14.5	14.2	0.27
Gary Trent Jr.	99	97	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.43	-8	7	-15	14.9	14.4	0.55	14.5	14.1	0.38

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Nesmith	80	82	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.51	3	-2	5	15.0	12.8	2.23	14.8	14.9	-0.10
Pascal Siakam	82	83	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	0	1	14.4	14.6	-0.15	15.7	12.4	3.24
Andrew Nembhard	73	76	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.45	0	1	-1	15.0	13.2	1.86	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Myles Turner	85	87	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.56	-5	6	-11	15.2	11.4	3.88	14.5	16.3	-1.89
Tyrese Haliburton	85	88	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.30	-3	4	-7	14.7	13.6	1.02	14.6	15.9	-1.32
T.J. McConnell	36	36	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	0	1	13.4	15.0	-1.60	15.4	14.6	0.79
Ben Sheppard	13	14	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	0	1	12.5	14.7	-2.17	15.3	14.8	0.49
Jarace Walker	24	25	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	0	1	14.2	14.5	-0.36	12.8	15.4	-2.61
Obi Toppin	23	25	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.09	5	-4	9	11.9	15.1	-3.23	15.6	14.6	0.96
Bennedict Mathurin	34	34	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	0	1	13.2	15.0	-1.86	15.0	14.8	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.55,0.66,0.16,0.54,0.73,0.45,0.14,0.09,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, PHX 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.63,0.56,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.28,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.41,0.28,1	86.6%
POR 101, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.31,0.22,0.23,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.37,0.33,0.41,1	85.1%
CLE 102, ATL 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.22,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.06,0.15,1	84.2%