NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	140		Excitement	12.5 [10]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +133.9%
Denver Nuggets	147		Comeback	2.4 [477]		LVP	CJ McCollum (POR): -32.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	1.34	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.81,1.2,1.26,1.34,1.34,1.34,1.34	0.55	0.87	0.08	24	95%	1.35	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.04
Robert Covington	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33	0.14	0.18	-0.01	10	73%	0.33	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Enes Kanter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	11	36%	-0.07	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21	-0.06	-0.18	-0.03	14	41%	-0.20	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	12	45%	-0.03	6	-0.22	5	60%	-0.01
CJ McCollum	-0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33	-0.10	-0.24	-0.01	22	39%	-0.19	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.46,0.46	0.46	0.19	0.28	0.01	13	90%	0.55	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.04
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.45	0.45	0.09	0.33	-0.03	31	54%	0.50	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.06
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.26,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.28	0.28	0.15	0.12	-0.00	18	60%	0.28	0	0.00	11	91%	0.08
Austin Rivers	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.03	0.01	10	75%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markus Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	11	58%	0.09	3	-0.12	2	0%	-0.10
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	6	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	26.0	2.7	28.2	14.8	32.8	2.6	39.2	1.6	15.0	1.8	17.5	182.1
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	2.3	15.8	2.3	15.8	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR -1.8%

DEN +13.7%

DEN +14.7%

DEN +19.1%

DEN +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	16.2	14.4	123.9	127.8	111.3
season	14.9	15.0		116.9	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.2		112.3	115.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	14.4	12.3	15.2	14.5	17.0	14.3
DEN	15.0	16.5	14.2	17.4	18.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	60	62	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.25	2	-9	11	14.4	14.2	0.23	15.9	16.5	-0.61
Norman Powell	100	101	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.33	11	-18	29	14.1	15.5	-1.41	16.6	13.4	3.18
Jusuf Nurkic	49	50	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-8	9	13.8	14.6	-0.80	15.1	17.1	-1.94
Damian Lillard	100	103	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-9	11	13.8	18.2	-4.36	16.3	15.6	0.71
Anfernee Simons	33	31	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.18	-15	8	-23	15.5	13.8	1.73	14.0	17.0	-3.04
Robert Covington	83	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-7	7	13.8	15.8	-2.01	16.7	14.9	1.81
CJ McCollum	98	101	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	0	-7	14.3	14.4	-0.12	16.4	14.6	1.87
Enes Kanter	26	25	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.38	-8	1	-9	15.6	13.9	1.72	18.2	15.7	2.53
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	16	16	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.03	-21	14	-35	17.6	13.7	3.88	15.1	16.4	-1.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	92	88	1.06	-0.56	1.62	0.74	11	-4	15	16.8	13.7	3.10	14.9	12.0	2.94
Aaron Gordon	79	77	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.74	-2	9	-11	15.8	17.1	-1.30	13.7	15.5	-1.77
Monte Morris	82	79	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	0	7	16.2	16.2	0.01	14.5	13.8	0.75
Paul Millsap	22	21	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	0	7	17.7	15.9	1.87	15.9	13.9	1.92
Nikola Jokic	91	89	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	9	-11	16.2	16.2	-0.04	14.2	14.6	-0.37
Markus Howard	29	30	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	-2	11	16.3	16.2	0.17	15.6	13.8	1.83
JaMychal Green	38	38	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	2	3	17.2	15.7	1.44	15.3	13.8	1.50
JaVale McGee	1	0	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	7	-7	0.0	16.4	-16.36	0.0	14.3	-14.29
Facundo Campazzo	45	47	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.39	5	2	3	15.1	16.9	-1.85	12.9	15.3	-2.47
Austin Rivers	85	83	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	18	-29	15.8	17.3	-1.46	13.8	15.7	-1.92
Shaquille Harrison	2	4	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	-0.36	-1	8	-9	3.0	16.5	-13.45	8.5	14.5	-6.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.48,0.73,0.74,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.84,0.54,0.62,0.89,0.97,0.98,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 100, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.46,0.69,0.89,0.85,0.84,1	85.9%
IND 111, ATL 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.76,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.59,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.69,0.78,0.67,0.96,1	85.2%
CHA 107, MEM 113	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.61,0.63,0.83,0.91,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.85,0.72,0.54,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.92,1	84.9%