NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	8.3 [212]		MVP	Boris Diaw (SAS): +32.5%
Dallas Mavericks	89		Comeback	2.0 [694]		LVP	Samuel Dalembert (DAL): -12.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.32	0.10	0.22	-0.00	12	71%	0.35	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.13	-0.00	6	71%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.08
Patty Mills	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	71%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.06,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	15	56%	0.08	3	-0.12	11	73%	0.16
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	16	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05	-0.13	0.05	-0.02	14	36%	0.04	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	5	86%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	10	65%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.08	0.08	-0.01	20	43%	0.09	4	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	19	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	7	71%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.01	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	6	29%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	3	25%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.17

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	3.4	36.6	18.6	29.4	3.7	42.0	158.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +27.8%

SAS +24.2%

SAS +25.9%

DAL -22.0%

DAL -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.1	102.2	95.7	105.2
season	15.0	15.3		109.8	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.0		107.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.6	13.6	17.8	17.7	15.6
DAL	17.0	17.7	13.5	14.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	55	57	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-7	18	15.3	16.1	-0.81	14.2	18.0	-3.78
Tiago Splitter	48	48	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.43	5	-1	6	15.4	16.0	-0.58	16.1	15.2	0.88
Kawhi Leonard	72	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-2	8	15.7	15.4	0.29	15.9	14.7	1.15
Tony Parker	56	59	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	1	2	16.3	14.7	1.61	16.2	14.7	1.50
Tim Duncan	69	72	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.31	-5	9	-14	16.7	12.5	4.21	15.9	14.7	1.28
Matt Bonner	10	10	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.11	9	-5	14	12.5	16.0	-3.54	15.6	15.7	-0.06
Patty Mills	40	40	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.12	8	-4	12	13.9	17.0	-3.12	15.8	15.5	0.34
Boris Diaw	55	56	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	5	-6	15.2	16.4	-1.18	14.9	16.8	-1.83
Danny Green	29	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.12	-9	13	-22	17.1	15.0	2.19	17.0	15.1	1.84
Marco Belinelli	21	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	11	-18	15.9	15.6	0.33	15.2	15.8	-0.58

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	30	29	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.11	6	-10	16	14.9	16.0	-1.12	17.1	15.0	2.19
Jae Crowder	28	28	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.12	-4	0	-4	17.3	15.0	2.33	13.9	16.4	-2.59
Shawn Marion	59	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-6	8	14.7	17.3	-2.54	15.8	15.5	0.29
Brandan Wright	12	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	4	-12	16.8	15.5	1.35	10.9	16.4	-5.51
Vince Carter	53	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-3	2	14.8	16.7	-1.88	16.2	14.9	1.25
Devin Harris	37	37	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.28	1	-5	6	15.2	16.0	-0.78	16.4	15.2	1.18
Jose Calderon	56	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.10	-5	1	-6	16.0	15.2	0.78	15.2	16.4	-1.18
Monta Ellis	69	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.46	-4	0	-4	15.4	16.5	-1.14	16.2	14.2	2.01
Dirk Nowitzki	70	70	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.45	-5	1	-6	16.7	12.5	4.16	15.4	16.6	-1.20
Samuel Dalembert	51	49	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.54	-2	-2	0	15.8	15.5	0.37	16.0	15.2	0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 115, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.15,0.31,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.02,0	92.3%
HOU 98, OKC 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.32,0.26,0	91.1%
CLE 90, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.41,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.45,0.28,0	91.0%