NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	9.5 [77]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +50.4%
New York Knicks	89		Comeback	4.6 [72]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NYK): -25.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.07,0.22	-0.01	0.23	0.00	21	54%	0.41	5	-0.19	8	87%	0.05
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	18	47%	-0.00	2	-0.06	11	36%	-0.14
Mario Chalmers	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	10	25%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Bosh	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.18	-0.03	-0.16	-0.01	10	57%	-0.01	4	-0.17	10	90%	0.04

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.5	0.50	0.16	0.35	0.01	29	57%	0.53	1	-0.02	14	71%	-0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.19,0.19	0.19	-0.01	0.18	-0.02	5	60%	0.22	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Harrellson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.09	0.00	13	61%	0.20	4	-0.25	7	57%	-0.05
Landry Fields	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.13	-0.13	0.00	15	23%	-0.23	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.5	43.5	17.7	32.1	3.4	41.9	170.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +38.2%

MIA -2.1%

NYK +27.5%

MIA -10.7%

MIA -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.6	94.6	95.7	102.8
season	15.5	14.9		105.6	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		100.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	13.2	18.0	14.3	14.9
NYK	18.2	15.6	14.8	16.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	3	3	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-4	6	10.3	15.1	-4.73	14.7	16.3	-1.60
Joel Anthony	38	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-3	4	14.5	15.2	-0.66	15.6	16.6	-1.03
Mike Miller	48	48	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	3	-8	14.8	15.1	-0.30	14.9	17.6	-2.68
Udonis Haslem	24	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	6	-14	17.1	14.1	2.94	17.7	15.6	2.10
Mario Chalmers	73	74	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.58	13	-15	28	14.7	15.6	-0.84	16.6	14.5	2.12
Shane Battier	47	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.40	3	-5	8	14.5	15.4	-0.91	16.6	15.8	0.85
Dwyane Wade	74	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-1	0	14.8	15.4	-0.66	16.0	17.0	-0.99
Chris Bosh	74	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	6	-14	15.1	13.9	1.20	16.3	15.7	0.62
LeBron James	79	79	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.51	-7	5	-12	15.0	14.2	0.79	16.3	15.9	0.34

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	78	76	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.43	13	-11	24	16.5	14.9	1.61	15.2	13.3	1.94
Amar'e Stoudemire	65	65	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.42	7	-5	12	16.0	16.7	-0.71	15.6	13.3	2.29
Tyson Chandler	60	62	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-9	20	17.2	14.3	2.92	15.4	14.0	1.35
J.R. Smith	69	70	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.48	-2	4	-6	16.4	15.7	0.63	14.5	16.1	-1.55
Mike Bibby	45	43	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.49	-3	5	-8	15.4	16.9	-1.49	14.6	15.2	-0.54
Landry Fields	38	37	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	1	0	15.1	17.0	-1.97	15.3	14.7	0.60
Baron Davis	48	48	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.06	5	-3	8	16.9	15.4	1.49	15.3	14.5	0.88
Josh Harrellson	20	20	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	4	-6	15.1	16.5	-1.42	13.6	15.3	-1.61
Jared Jeffries	9	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.10	-10	12	-22	15.7	16.3	-0.61	10.8	15.5	-4.65
Steve Novak	33	28	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.04	-10	12	-22	16.0	16.3	-0.38	14.1	15.2	-1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.66,0.62,0.46,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 101, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.66,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.92,1	90.7%
TOR 88, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.46,0.76,0.59,1	90.6%
CHI 86, WAS 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.63,0.57,0.73,1	90.4%