NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	78		Excitement	5.0 [849]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +13.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	87		Comeback	2.0 [1152]		LVP	Marco Belinelli (NOH): -18.1%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.07	0.00	11	59%	0.16	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.13	0.01	0.09	15	61%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.04	5	54%	-0.02	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Jarrett Jack	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	6	40%	0.02	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Willie Green	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	36%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	4	20%	-0.06	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04
Carl Landry	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	12	43%	-0.04	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	0.00	9	22%	-0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	11	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	12	62%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.03	14	52%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	37%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	9	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	39%	-0.03	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	10	33%	-0.06	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	33.1	18.0	31.6	2.7	36.7	153.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +26.2%

NOH -1.3%

LAL +16.0%

LAL +7.5%

LAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	LAL	NBA	NOH	LAL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.6	15.5	90.7	98.9	105.7
season	16.2	15.9		104.6	108.8
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.9	16.2	16.0	18.2	16.5
LAL	19.4	13.2	18.3	16.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	42	43	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.15	7	-16	23	14.5	18.5	-3.91	15.5	17.5	-2.00
DJ Mbenga	5	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-10	11	15.8	16.6	-0.79	18.0	16.5	1.53
Willie Green	24	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-7	5	14.8	17.2	-2.43	14.6	17.3	-2.71
Jason Smith	18	16	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-6	3	13.9	17.2	-3.36	12.6	17.4	-4.81
Emeka Okafor	40	44	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.18	1	-10	11	16.8	16.3	0.47	17.4	15.7	1.75
Aaron Gray	44	41	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	2	-13	16.5	16.6	-0.14	16.2	16.9	-0.68
Jarrett Jack	49	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	4	-17	17.5	15.3	2.24	14.2	20.1	-5.81
Chris Paul	75	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	-2	-5	16.9	14.0	2.92	17.4	11.0	6.35
Carl Landry	60	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.15	-10	1	-11	17.4	14.5	2.93	18.6	11.7	6.85
Trevor Ariza	73	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	-1	-7	17.1	13.3	3.82	17.3	12.0	5.35

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	54	52	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-3	15	14.5	19.8	-5.28	16.8	16.2	0.61
Andrew Bynum	59	55	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	1	7	16.9	15.8	1.19	16.3	16.9	-0.56
Shannon Brown	33	31	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.03	12	-3	15	13.7	18.3	-4.62	16.8	16.4	0.41
Steve Blake	35	33	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-1	11	14.0	18.2	-4.20	16.9	16.3	0.64
Kobe Bryant	60	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	8	-7	17.8	13.8	4.06	16.9	15.8	1.11
Matt Barnes	25	22	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	1	7	13.1	17.9	-4.80	16.4	16.6	-0.18
Pau Gasol	62	65	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.20	1	8	-7	18.2	12.6	5.65	16.5	16.6	-0.10
Derek Fisher	53	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	10	-11	18.2	14.0	4.20	16.3	16.9	-0.64
Metta World Peace	59	58	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.27	-6	15	-21	18.0	13.6	4.48	16.1	17.4	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,1	94.4%
CHI 81, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	93.9%
PHI 69, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.9%