NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	2.5 [1250]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +10.5%
Boston Celtics	106		Comeback	1.5 [676]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (MIA): -14.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.02	-0.04	5	83%	0.11	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	44%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	7	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	14	46%	-0.01	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.15	-0.00	0.18	18	67%	-0.01	1	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02
Dorell Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	10	10%	-0.10	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.22	0.01	0.12	13	96%	0.12	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	14	59%	0.09	0	0.00	11	82%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	8	59%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	58%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	8	65%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	5	40%	-0.03	3	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.7	32.9	19.7	40.2	2.6	28.2	154.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +29.2%

BOS +11.0%

BOS +11.8%

MIA -1.4%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.2	15.6	15.3	84.6	117.8	106.0
season	16.2	15.5		104.4	105.7
opponent	15.7	15.4		102.1	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	19.0	15.5	14.9	16.2
BOS	15.2	14.4	15.1	17.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	9	9	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.05	5	-34	39	15.1	16.3	-1.19	14.9	15.7	-0.83
James Jones	16	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.18	6	-35	41	14.2	16.6	-2.35	17.9	15.1	2.73
Joel Anthony	26	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-28	27	14.2	17.0	-2.74	17.2	15.0	2.19
Dorell Wright	47	46	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-26	23	15.6	16.8	-1.13	16.3	15.0	1.33
Mario Chalmers	32	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	-22	15	17.6	15.4	2.12	15.3	15.8	-0.45
Michael Beasley	48	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	-13	-3	16.1	16.3	-0.17	16.4	14.7	1.70
Jermaine O'Neal	40	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.16	-18	-11	-7	17.3	15.3	1.94	14.7	16.4	-1.71
Udonis Haslem	59	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.41	-27	-2	-25	16.5	15.5	1.01	15.0	16.7	-1.63
Dwyane Wade	72	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.43	-29	0	-29	15.9	17.4	-1.56	15.2	17.2	-1.92
Carlos Arroyo	43	42	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.17	-21	-8	-13	17.2	15.3	1.89	15.5	15.8	-0.34
Quentin Richardson	63	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.53	-34	5	-39	16.1	16.4	-0.35	15.3	16.4	-1.10

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	50	52	0.71	-0.21	0.91	-0.50	41	-12	53	14.4	17.1	-2.73	16.7	15.5	1.13
Ray Allen	63	64	0.59	-0.09	0.69	-0.32	31	-2	33	14.8	17.5	-2.64	16.7	14.9	1.79
Glen Davis	57	57	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.21	24	5	19	14.9	16.8	-1.87	16.0	16.4	-0.41
Paul Pierce	59	60	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.69	37	-8	45	14.8	17.3	-2.48	16.1	16.4	-0.30
Rajon Rondo	67	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.46	29	0	29	15.3	16.6	-1.31	15.7	17.5	-1.79
Michael Finley	25	25	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	29	-29	16.8	15.2	1.62	17.0	15.9	1.12
Tony Allen	33	33	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.04	-1	30	-31	16.2	15.3	0.82	16.6	16.0	0.61
Shelden Williams	33	34	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.11	4	25	-21	16.8	14.9	1.87	16.4	16.0	0.41
Marquis Daniels	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	33	-37	19.3	15.2	4.12	14.2	16.4	-2.23
Nate Robinson	13	13	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	33	-37	18.7	15.1	3.58	15.4	16.3	-0.94
Rasheed Wallace	40	39	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.15	-12	41	-53	17.1	14.4	2.73	15.5	16.7	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 66, DET 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
UTA 102, GSW 126	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
DEN 86, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%