NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	4.5 [937]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +11.0%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.2 [1195]		LVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): -8.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	15	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	5	80%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	0.04	21	51%	-0.00	4	-0.08	9	89%	0.02
Allen Iverson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	25	40%	-0.03	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	6	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	17	55%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	12	61%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	11	56%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	15	53%	0.08	6	-0.12	8	100%	0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.7	32.0	18.4	25.8	3.0	36.0	143.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.6%

SAS +6.7%

SAS +3.1%

DEN -0.1%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	15.8	15.4	95.7	104.3	104.5
season	14.0	16.2		105.8	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		98.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	13.8	18.3	15.7	15.3
SAS	15.0	16.2	16.0	16.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	27	28	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-10	11	15.3	15.3	0.06	13.7	16.7	-2.99
Linas Kleiza	29	30	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-12	15	16.7	14.7	2.04	16.1	15.7	0.39
J.R. Smith	24	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	-1	-7	17.2	14.6	2.65	13.9	16.5	-2.56
Allen Iverson	86	87	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-5	1	15.2	16.2	-0.93	15.9	15.5	0.36
Marcus Camby	75	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-3	-3	14.7	17.9	-3.25	16.3	14.1	2.14
Steve Blake	66	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.17	-10	1	-11	14.7	16.9	-2.27	16.1	15.2	0.82
Nene	70	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.16	-12	3	-15	15.5	14.5	0.98	16.4	14.3	2.03
Carmelo Anthony	83	85	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	0	-9	15.1	16.7	-1.52	16.0	14.5	1.46

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	65	63	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-5	19	16.2	14.9	1.35	15.2	15.4	-0.23
Tony Parker	75	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	0	9	15.9	15.7	0.14	15.0	16.4	-1.41
Bruce Bowen	65	65	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	3	3	16.4	14.6	1.71	14.9	16.1	-1.21
Fabricio Oberto	61	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	1	7	15.9	15.7	0.14	15.4	15.1	0.30
Michael Finley	61	60	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	0	9	15.4	16.7	-1.25	15.7	14.5	1.17
Brent Barry	10	9	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	17.1	15.7	1.41	12.6	15.6	-3.03
Manu Ginobili	57	58	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	7	-5	14.8	17.6	-2.80	15.6	14.7	0.93
Jacque Vaughn	22	23	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.10	-2	11	-13	16.5	15.6	0.81	16.2	15.0	1.17
Francisco Elson	19	19	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	8	-7	16.8	15.6	1.19	16.4	15.0	1.35
Robert Horry	30	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.20	-8	17	-25	15.1	16.2	-1.04	14.7	15.6	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 95, ATL 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
DET 85, CHH 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.96,1	95.7%
GSW 115, LAC 126	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.7%