NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	97		Excitement	5.8 [638]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +18.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	88		Comeback	1.6 [365]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIN): -7.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18	0.12	0.06	0.00	9	78%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	13	61%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	16	63%	0.11	2	-0.07	11	82%	0.01
Devean George	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	5	20%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.02	-0.04	20	48%	0.06	3	-0.07	8	62%	0.02
Slava Medvedenko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	2	150%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.05,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	16	62%	0.16	4	-0.16	5	80%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	15	50%	0.05	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	14	47%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.3	30.5	20.3	30.6	3.5	31.4	145.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +12.9%

MIN -4.0%

LAL +15.0%

LAL +22.4%

LAL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIN	NBA	LAL	MIN	NBA
this game	17.6	14.9	15.7	109.0	100.0	100.5
season	15.4	15.6		102.8	103.2
opponent	16.1	15.6		98.4	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.6	15.3	18.1	22.3	17.6
MIN	17.1	14.0	13.2	15.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	80	78	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-1	11	17.5	18.4	-0.94	15.1	13.6	1.50
Kobe Bryant	83	81	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	1	7	17.6	17.7	-0.08	14.9	15.0	-0.07
Shaquille O'Neal	76	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	1	7	17.4	18.6	-1.19	15.1	13.7	1.37
Kareem Rush	28	28	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-2	13	18.4	17.2	1.16	13.4	15.6	-2.26
Derek Fisher	48	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	-2	13	17.2	18.0	-0.84	13.7	16.4	-2.73
Gary Payton	61	60	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	11	-13	17.2	18.4	-1.16	15.6	13.4	2.26
Rick Fox	12	12	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	4	1	16.0	17.8	-1.84	14.1	15.1	-0.98
Devean George	35	36	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.23	-6	15	-21	18.7	16.9	1.80	16.9	13.6	3.31
Brian Cook	3	2	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	7	-5	17.0	17.6	-0.62	14.0	15.0	-0.95
Slava Medvedenko	19	20	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	11	-13	18.8	17.3	1.52	13.6	15.3	-1.66

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oliver Miller	4	4	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.02	2	-11	13	14.7	14.9	-0.19	10.0	18.0	-7.95
Mark Madsen	11	13	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-10	11	13.0	15.2	-2.21	17.2	17.7	-0.52
Gary Trent	4	4	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-9	9	13.0	15.0	-2.02	14.2	17.8	-3.50
Trenton Hassell	37	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.10	2	-11	13	15.9	14.2	1.75	17.0	18.0	-1.00
Ervin Johnson	15	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.04	-1	-8	7	15.6	14.8	0.81	18.3	17.4	0.89
Sam Cassell	59	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-6	3	15.4	13.9	1.49	16.7	19.4	-2.72
Fred Hoiberg	38	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-3	-3	14.5	15.2	-0.71	18.8	16.5	2.29
Wally Szczerbiak	45	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	2	-13	13.6	16.3	-2.73	18.1	17.1	1.04
Kevin Garnett	81	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	0	-9	15.1	12.6	2.56	17.8	15.4	2.35
Latrell Sprewell	85	86	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	0	-9	15.0	12.0	3.04	17.6	17.0	0.62
Michael Olowokandi	61	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	2	-13	15.0	14.8	0.17	18.0	16.8	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.3,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.15,0.09,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 102, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.32,0.37,0.15,0.05,0	93.9%
LAC 93, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.25,0.31,0.19,0.21,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.07,0.02,0	93.5%
HOU 100, CHA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.32,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0,0	93.3%