NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	81		Excitement	4.0 [1017]		MVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): +11.1%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	1.4 [967]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -14.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.06	12	63%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	7	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	0.00	9	26%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	15	35%	-0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	21	49%	-0.02	6	-0.12	3	67%	-0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.02	0.05	7	121%	0.18	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	70%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	4	64%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	17	53%	0.02	2	-0.04	13	77%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	7	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	0.06	6	75%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.13	-0.00	-0.07	17	34%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.7	31.4	19.7	29.8	3.8	37.6	155.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +43.1%

IND +2.9%

MIA -4.0%

IND +4.0%

IND +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.4	17.8	15.7	92.0	109.3	100.5
season	16.2	16.7		99.3	101.1
opponent	15.7	15.9		94.7	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	15.6	13.0	16.7	15.4
IND	15.7	17.1	19.1	19.3	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	15	14	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.14	5	-18	23	15.7	15.3	0.35	17.3	17.8	-0.56
Malik Allen	36	36	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.20	7	-20	27	15.7	15.1	0.59	19.1	16.8	2.33
Brian Grant	35	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-9	5	13.2	16.8	-3.56	17.7	17.8	-0.07
Rafer Alston	64	62	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-17	21	15.4	15.4	0.00	18.0	17.2	0.76
Udonis Haslem	30	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	-1	-11	16.9	14.6	2.36	16.5	18.4	-1.92
Eddie Jones	44	45	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.19	-19	6	-25	14.5	16.3	-1.84	17.8	17.8	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	73	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	0	-13	15.8	13.5	2.30	17.5	18.9	-1.43
Caron Butler	68	66	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	3	-19	15.5	15.0	0.49	17.9	17.2	0.72
Lamar Odom	75	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.05	-17	4	-21	15.6	14.2	1.43	17.6	18.5	-0.89

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	70	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.09	22	-9	31	17.7	17.8	-0.07	15.3	15.8	-0.56
Jermaine O'Neal	72	73	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.08	13	0	13	17.6	18.4	-0.72	15.7	13.7	2.06
Reggie Miller	50	52	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.07	17	-4	21	17.4	18.3	-0.95	14.8	16.1	-1.29
Jeff Foster	44	46	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.06	15	-2	17	17.8	17.7	0.08	15.5	15.3	0.22
Jamaal Tinsley	49	51	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.09	15	-2	17	17.3	18.4	-1.14	15.1	15.8	-0.71
Anthony Johnson	46	47	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	11	-9	17.6	17.9	-0.32	16.2	14.5	1.71
Al Harrington	45	46	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	16	-19	17.8	17.7	0.14	15.8	14.9	0.95
Fred Jones	36	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	17	-21	18.3	17.4	0.95	16.1	14.8	1.29
Jonathan Bender	17	18	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.22	-7	20	-27	18.1	17.7	0.38	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Austin Croshere	10	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	14	-15	17.7	17.8	-0.06	11.5	15.9	-4.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 94, LAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1	96.0%
ORL 110, TOR 127	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.5%
BOS 96, OKC 119	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.83,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%