NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	77		Excitement	4.3 [943]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +10.1%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	1.2 [1038]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -12.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	10	55%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	17	55%	0.02	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Joe Smith	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	15	47%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	6	42%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	16	41%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.02	0.04	15	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	16	58%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike James	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	57%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	17	49%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	56%	-0.00	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.17	-0.01	-0.06	16	31%	-0.05	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.6	29.4	19.6	26.4	3.7	29.2	138.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +31.6%

MIL -6.1%

DET +19.2%

DET +0.8%

DET +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.8	17.5	15.7	89.5	104.6	100.5
season	15.3	16.2		103.6	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.5		92.6	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.7	15.3	15.7	15.4	15.8
DET	17.6	17.4	15.6	19.6	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	29	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-15	16	16.2	15.6	0.56	18.3	17.1	1.23
Brian Skinner	32	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	-11	8	16.3	15.5	0.81	18.3	17.0	1.36
Toni Kukoc	24	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-3	-8	15.8	15.8	0.04	18.0	17.3	0.76
Keith Van Horn	66	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-4	-6	14.6	19.7	-5.14	17.1	18.8	-1.78
Desmond Mason	74	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-6	-2	15.9	15.5	0.35	17.4	18.1	-0.70
Damon Jones	57	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	1	-16	15.6	16.2	-0.56	17.1	18.3	-1.23
Michael Redd	76	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-4	-6	15.8	15.8	0.00	17.3	18.8	-1.44
Joe Smith	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	0	-14	16.6	11.6	4.97	17.6	17.1	0.49

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	73	71	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.02	17	-3	20	17.6	16.9	0.66	16.5	12.7	3.80
Chauncey Billups	68	65	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.02	16	-2	18	17.7	16.6	1.09	16.7	13.0	3.64
Richard Hamilton	67	67	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.05	18	-4	22	16.8	19.7	-2.94	15.9	15.6	0.22
Ben Wallace	70	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-1	16	17.3	18.4	-1.15	15.9	15.3	0.63
Rasheed Wallace	74	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	2	10	17.2	19.1	-1.87	16.2	12.9	3.32
Mehmet Okur	28	26	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	12	-10	19.1	16.7	2.40	14.8	16.2	-1.37
Lindsey Hunter	25	25	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.13	-3	17	-20	19.0	16.9	2.07	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Darko Milicic	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	15	-16	13.0	17.6	-4.59	8.0	16.0	-7.99
Darvin Ham	14	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	17	-20	16.9	17.6	-0.66	12.7	16.5	-3.80
Mike James	14	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	17	-20	16.9	17.6	-0.66	12.7	16.5	-3.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.87,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 79, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	96.2%
HOU 105, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1	95.9%
SAS 108, POR 121	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.87,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%