NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	94		Excitement	3.1 [1136]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +6.5%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	1.0 [871]		LVP	Robert Horry (LAL): -24.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	6	81%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.03	14	57%	0.05	5	-0.04	7	57%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.03	31	56%	-0.01	4	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Devean George	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.12	0.00	-0.06	7	12%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brian Shaw	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	7	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.24	-0.07	-0.15	0.02	10	30%	-0.23	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	16	55%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	6	58%	0.03	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	22	52%	-0.01	2	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.03	-0.08	10	46%	-0.02	3	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.8	27.1	18.7	29.0	2.8	37.2	145.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.5%

LAL -7.6%

SAS +8.1%

SAS +7.0%

SAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.4	15.5	104.4	105.5	101.6
season	15.4	15.7		105.0	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		96.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	18.0	17.7	15.7	14.6	16.5
SAS	13.3	16.6	17.0	14.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Slava Medvedenko	33	34	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.44	15	-17	32	14.8	17.4	-2.60	15.5	15.3	0.27
Kareem Rush	8	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	0	-2	17.7	16.3	1.41	17.3	15.2	2.08
Jannero Pargo	32	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.42	13	-15	28	14.3	17.7	-3.39	15.9	15.1	0.86
Brian Shaw	39	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.55	11	-13	24	15.4	17.3	-1.91	15.7	15.0	0.70
Mark Madsen	23	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.03	-9	7	-16	16.7	16.4	0.37	17.4	14.7	2.77
Robert Horry	45	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	5	-12	17.2	15.7	1.51	14.4	16.3	-1.95
Shaquille O'Neal	74	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.48	5	-7	12	16.3	17.1	-0.80	15.1	16.5	-1.40
Devean George	48	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.16	-19	17	-36	17.6	15.1	2.53	14.9	15.8	-0.91
Derek Fisher	58	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.02	-15	13	-28	17.7	14.3	3.39	15.1	15.9	-0.86
Kobe Bryant	90	91	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	16.5	0.0	16.47	15.4	0.0	15.36

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	76	75	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-9	20	15.3	15.7	-0.36	16.7	15.3	1.44
Tim Duncan	85	85	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.44	0	2	-2	15.1	19.7	-4.61	16.4	16.8	-0.35
Manu Ginobili	47	46	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.50	-4	6	-10	15.1	15.7	-0.57	15.8	17.2	-1.40
Tony Parker	66	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	1	0	15.0	16.4	-1.38	16.7	15.8	0.86
Malik Rose	47	48	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	0	2	15.3	15.5	-0.22	16.0	17.0	-0.96
David Robinson	50	47	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.19	2	0	2	16.0	14.6	1.37	17.0	15.9	1.03
Speedy Claxton	25	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	1	0	16.4	15.0	1.38	15.8	16.7	-0.86
Stephen Jackson	59	59	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	5	-8	15.7	14.8	0.85	16.7	16.0	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.95,0.79,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 91, OKC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.85,0.9,1,1	96.8%
PHX 88, OKC 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
GSW 83, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%