NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	6.5 [492]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +24.0%
Detroit Pistons	94		Comeback	1.2 [413]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -21.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.24	0.09	0.13	-0.02	28	63%	0.33	4	-0.09	12	83%	0.09
Steven Hunter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	2	80%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	9	45%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Pat Burke	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	16	47%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Pat Garrity	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.12,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.06	-0.00	7	43%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	18	49%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	17	61%	0.07	4	-0.09	12	100%	0.06
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	8	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	16	41%	-0.21	0	0.00	19	79%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	2.6	31.4	17.7	32.6	3.0	45.3	163.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +69.8%

DET -6.0%

DET -4.3%

DET -6.7%

DET -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	14.0	16.8	15.5	106.5	100.0	101.6
season	14.6	16.8		102.7	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.8		97.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.5	14.7	13.8	14.1	14.0
DET	17.8	15.9	16.9	16.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	74	76	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.38	4	1	3	13.6	15.6	-1.94	17.2	14.8	2.45
Shawn Kemp	34	36	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	-4	13	14.4	13.8	0.64	17.4	16.3	1.12
Chris Whitney	38	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	-2	9	13.9	14.1	-0.19	17.0	16.6	0.40
Steven Hunter	20	19	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	-8	21	15.9	13.5	2.38	16.7	16.8	-0.09
Pat Garrity	42	40	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.21	2	3	-1	13.3	14.6	-1.36	16.1	17.2	-1.14
Darrell Armstrong	60	58	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	2	1	14.4	13.4	1.04	15.9	18.1	-2.20
Jacque Vaughn	48	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	3	-1	13.6	14.5	-0.93	17.3	16.1	1.21
Gordan Giricek	40	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	6	-7	14.4	13.7	0.69	16.5	17.0	-0.52
Andrew DeClercq	22	24	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	7	-9	13.3	14.3	-0.94	18.7	16.1	2.62
Drew Gooden	70	71	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.36	-10	15	-25	14.1	13.8	0.27	16.2	18.5	-2.28
Pat Burke	17	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	7	-9	14.5	13.9	0.61	15.8	17.0	-1.14

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	44	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-7	9	17.7	15.9	1.87	14.3	13.8	0.46
Richard Hamilton	73	73	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.36	9	-14	23	16.4	17.9	-1.48	14.0	14.2	-0.21
Clifford Robinson	82	81	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.41	7	-12	19	16.7	17.3	-0.66	14.0	14.3	-0.35
Chucky Atkins	23	23	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.05	-10	5	-15	17.3	16.6	0.73	13.7	14.2	-0.50
Chauncey Billups	71	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.37	4	-9	13	16.6	17.3	-0.73	14.1	13.9	0.22
Ben Wallace	85	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-4	3	16.7	17.1	-0.39	13.7	16.5	-2.77
Mehmet Okur	21	21	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.04	-15	10	-25	17.2	16.6	0.62	15.6	13.6	2.05
Corliss Williamson	50	49	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	2	-9	15.9	17.7	-1.87	13.9	14.2	-0.24
Jon Barry	21	21	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	9	-23	17.9	16.4	1.48	14.0	14.1	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 93, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.19,0.1,0.02,0.02,0	93.6%
MIN 88, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.04,0.08,0	93.5%
UTA 115, HOU 108	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.05,0	93.5%