NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	99		Excitement	7.1 [411]		MVP	Robert Horry (LAL): +106.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	100		Comeback	39.2 [33]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -25.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vlade Divac	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.01	11	68%	0.15	1	-0.03	12	75%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	15	60%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	0.00	16	59%	0.13	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	16	58%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Scot Pollard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Bobby Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	-0.06	12	32%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,1.06	1.06	0.12	0.95	0.00	7	90%	1.09	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	11	35%	-0.03	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	8	31%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	14	32%	-0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	22	47%	-0.12	2	-0.04	13	69%	0.05
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.12,-0.25	-0.25	-0.09	-0.15	0.01	26	45%	-0.15	4	-0.10	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	441.8	2.8	34.2	21.5	29.3	3.5	35.2	568.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +12.0%

LAL +8.6%

LAL +17.0%

LAL +4.0%

LAL +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	LAL	NBA	SAC	LAL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.8	15.6	105.3	108.7	102.3
season	14.2	15.3		106.6	106.9
opponent	15.4	15.5		99.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	11.5	16.7	18.2	18.0	15.9
LAL	15.2	12.6	15.2	16.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	23	23	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-5	9	17.3	15.5	1.90	16.7	14.1	2.64
Bobby Jackson	49	48	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.29	-8	7	-15	15.5	16.4	-0.85	14.3	15.3	-1.02
Lawrence Funderburke	8	7	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.04	-1	0	-1	15.6	15.9	-0.32	13.3	14.9	-1.60
Hedo Turkoglu	87	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-2	3	16.0	14.6	1.45	14.5	17.1	-2.61
Mike Bibby	89	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.58	4	-5	9	15.6	21.2	-5.58	15.0	10.0	4.98
Doug Christie	67	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.68	5	-6	11	16.2	15.1	1.08	15.0	14.2	0.80
Chris Webber	76	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.48	-5	4	-9	16.2	14.9	1.27	15.1	13.6	1.50
Vlade Divac	71	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.48	-5	4	-9	15.5	17.3	-1.90	14.1	16.7	-2.64

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	55	58	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.49	9	-8	17	14.7	14.9	-0.22	16.2	15.4	0.81
Kobe Bryant	82	84	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.48	7	-6	13	14.7	15.5	-0.83	15.8	17.2	-1.44
Rick Fox	48	47	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.81	-6	7	-13	15.7	13.7	2.02	16.9	14.9	2.00
Robert Horry	84	87	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	-5	11	14.8	13.9	0.97	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Shaquille O'Neal	76	78	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.51	-2	3	-5	15.5	11.4	4.10	16.5	12.9	3.66
Samaki Walker	16	16	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	-2	5	11.4	15.5	-4.10	12.9	16.5	-3.66
Lindsey Hunter	24	24	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.08	-2	3	-5	16.8	14.0	2.80	17.5	15.4	2.13
Devean George	52	54	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.30	2	-1	3	13.7	16.1	-2.37	15.1	16.9	-1.80
Brian Shaw	23	22	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.05	-12	13	-25	13.1	15.3	-2.17	14.0	16.5	-2.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.24,0.18,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, SAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.29,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.35,0.28,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,1	92.2%
WAS 117, GSW 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.22,0.28,1	91.9%
IND 102, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,1	90.1%