NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	78		Excitement	5.4 [717]		MVP	Todd Day (PHX): +4.9%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	2.0 [627]		LVP	Anfernee Hardaway (PHX): -23.9%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,0.08,0.08,0.03	0.01	0.04	0.03	19	51%	0.03	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.05
Oliver Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toby Bailey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Don MacLean	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	0.00	-0.06	7	0%	-0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Clifford Robinson	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	12	56%	-0.02	3	-0.15	12	83%	0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.24,-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	13	39%	-0.19	2	-0.05	10	60%	-0.09

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	3	60%	0.01	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	4	10%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.02	-0.06	10	59%	0.10	6	-0.14	14	71%	-0.06
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	7	31%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	11	74%	0.00	7	-0.12	5	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.11	-0.01	3	50%	-0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	30.3	15.5	25.6	2.5	40.4	142.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.5%

PHX -0.6%

MIA +21.5%

PHX -10.8%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	16.3	15.2	88.6	91.0	101.7
season	14.8	15.7		101.4	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.2	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	17.8	17.8	15.2	14.1	16.2
MIA	12.9	16.5	20.1	16.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd Day	28	30	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.16	11	-14	25	15.5	16.5	-1.05	16.0	16.5	-0.54
Oliver Miller	20	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-3	3	14.9	16.6	-1.64	16.3	16.3	-0.03
Don MacLean	30	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.38	11	-14	25	16.2	16.2	-0.07	17.8	15.6	2.18
Toby Bailey	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	2	-7	14.3	16.6	-2.30	13.7	16.9	-3.20
Luc Longley	24	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-5	7	15.9	16.3	-0.47	19.5	15.1	4.44
Rodney Rogers	62	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.48	8	-11	19	15.8	17.2	-1.44	16.2	16.6	-0.35
Corie Blount	17	17	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.17	-15	12	-27	18.5	15.7	2.79	12.8	17.2	-4.33
Shawn Marion	32	33	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	11	-25	17.8	15.3	2.51	15.1	17.1	-1.96
Clifford Robinson	76	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-3	3	16.4	15.2	1.21	16.4	15.7	0.67
Anfernee Hardaway	83	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.44	0	-3	3	15.7	24.2	-8.47	16.5	13.2	3.31
Randy Livingston	54	53	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	10	-23	17.1	14.9	2.22	16.6	15.9	0.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	51	49	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-7	17	16.0	16.8	-0.86	17.2	15.0	2.18
Tim Hardaway	63	63	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	-5	13	16.0	17.0	-1.01	16.0	16.9	-0.93
Dan Majerle	76	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	2	-1	16.6	14.8	1.82	15.9	18.3	-2.45
Mark Strickland	35	33	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	-13	29	15.5	16.9	-1.38	17.5	15.5	2.03
Bruce Bowen	28	26	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.32	0	3	-3	14.8	17.0	-2.25	16.5	16.1	0.40
Alonzo Mourning	63	62	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	2	-1	17.0	14.7	2.25	15.9	17.1	-1.22
Otis Thorpe	25	24	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	0	3	15.3	16.7	-1.40	17.5	15.7	1.77
Anthony Carter	26	25	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.20	-5	8	-13	17.0	16.0	1.01	16.9	16.0	0.93
Clar. Weatherspoon	38	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.18	-7	10	-17	16.8	16.0	0.86	15.2	17.1	-1.86
Rodney Buford	40	42	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.31	-12	15	-27	17.2	15.6	1.63	15.3	17.1	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.61,0.61,0.46,0.33,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 105, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.61,0.68,0.63,0.32,0.9,1	92.6%
LAL 115, SAC 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.89,0.88,0.7,0.81,0.72,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.42,1	91.0%
PHX 105, UTA 112	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.69,0.55,0.68,0.95,1	90.1%