NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	117		Excitement	10.4 [42]		MVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): +34.9%
Denver Nuggets	123		Comeback	35.2 [22]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -30.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3	0.16	0.14	-0.00	18	70%	0.30	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
Jon Barry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.00	0.01	8	89%	0.17	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.03	12	58%	0.25	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	57%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Tyrone Corbin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.03	10	23%	-0.09	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Scot Pollard	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	12	33%	-0.07	1	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.31	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31	-0.13	-0.18	0.00	25	42%	-0.07	2	-0.24	10	70%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.12	0.23	0.00	10	95%	0.43	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.07,0.02,-0.03,0.09,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.08	-0.04	19	63%	0.27	3	-0.09	5	60%	0.02
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	14	70%	0.18	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	12	38%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.33,-0.33,-0.32,-0.28,-0.28,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.06	-0.19	-0.00	26	48%	-0.03	2	-0.22	9	56%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	25.5	15.8	23.1	2.3	29.4	1.6	16.2	140.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	1.7	18.2	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +15.9%

SAC -2.1%

DEN +20.4%

DEN +14.4%

DEN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	14.6	15.2	106.4	111.8	101.7
season	13.8	14.8		102.9	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.7		103.7	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	11.9	16.9	15.1	15.0	11.4	14.3
DEN	15.8	15.9	11.5	15.1	15.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	65	65	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.08	9	-15	24	14.5	14.0	0.47	14.8	14.4	0.43
Darrick Martin	10	11	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-7	8	19.0	13.8	5.17	15.9	14.5	1.44
Vlade Divac	44	46	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-5	4	15.3	13.6	1.70	14.1	15.0	-0.82
Tyrone Corbin	56	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-7	8	14.7	13.9	0.88	16.0	13.2	2.76
Corliss Williamson	31	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	2	-10	14.2	14.3	-0.15	13.3	15.1	-1.85
Jon Barry	69	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-8	10	14.7	13.6	1.18	14.7	14.4	0.37
Jason Williams	100	99	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.36	-7	1	-8	13.8	19.0	-5.17	14.5	15.9	-1.44
Chris Webber	93	91	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	5	-16	13.7	17.6	-3.96	14.5	15.4	-0.92
Peja Stojakovic	82	82	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.31	-16	10	-26	13.7	16.1	-2.47	14.4	15.3	-0.96

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	72	74	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.32	22	-16	38	14.8	14.3	0.53	13.9	15.1	-1.12
James Posey	67	68	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.51	11	-5	16	13.7	16.0	-2.32	14.4	14.1	0.33
Antonio McDyess	94	94	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.29	15	-9	24	14.4	16.0	-1.63	14.2	15.1	-0.97
Nick Van Exel	99	98	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.27	13	-7	20	14.5	15.8	-1.34	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Raef LaFrentz	63	66	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.53	1	5	-4	14.0	15.4	-1.35	14.3	14.4	-0.11
Popeye Jones	8	8	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	12	-18	16.9	14.4	2.44	18.0	14.0	3.99
Chris Gatling	55	52	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.20	2	4	-2	15.3	13.9	1.47	14.0	14.5	-0.50
George McCloud	22	22	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.02	-8	14	-22	15.9	14.3	1.57	16.9	13.7	3.20
Keon Clark	49	47	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.29	1	5	-4	15.1	14.2	0.93	13.4	14.9	-1.49
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	21	21	-0.48	0.98	-1.47	0.13	-21	27	-48	15.0	14.5	0.48	14.9	14.2	0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.24,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.26,0.47,0.22,0.05,0.15,0.23,0.28,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.57,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 107, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.26,0.22,0.42,0.54,0.53,0.37,0.33,0.91,1	90.2%
TOR 101, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.77,0.95,1	88.4%
DEN 116, DAL 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.18,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.16,0.02,0.1,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.92,1	88.1%