NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	89		Excitement	2.1 [1236]		MVP	Otis Thorpe (MIA): +9.0%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.0 [1209]		LVP	Kenny Anderson (BOS): -8.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	12	67%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pervis Ellison	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Dana Barros	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	10	72%	0.01	2	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	22	54%	-0.00	2	-0.01	8	50%	-0.01
Doug Overton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	8	30%	-0.05	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.02	9	11%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.00	-0.04	8	77%	0.09	2	-0.00	6	83%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.15	0.00	0.08	11	84%	0.08	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	79%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.02	8	83%	0.07	2	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	9	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	62%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.17	0.00	-0.11	10	20%	-0.03	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	26.3	15.5	30.4	2.4	30.6	130.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.3%

MIA +1.5%

BOS -4.9%

MIA +7.7%

MIA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.3	15.0	15.2	96.7	125.0	101.7
season	14.7	15.7		102.4	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.1		98.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.6	18.2	15.2	14.4	16.3
MIA	15.1	16.9	14.8	13.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pervis Ellison	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-25	24	14.6	16.5	-1.86	14.5	15.1	-0.61
Walter McCarty	58	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-19	12	14.6	19.1	-4.58	15.7	14.0	1.71
Danny Fortson	34	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-19	12	17.2	15.7	1.50	15.8	14.6	1.21
Tony Battie	34	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.20	-14	-12	-2	15.8	16.5	-0.69	14.1	15.6	-1.52
Dana Barros	75	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-16	6	14.7	23.1	-8.34	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Doug Overton	51	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.14	-12	-14	2	15.5	17.2	-1.77	14.2	16.1	-1.95
Kenny Anderson	43	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.14	-17	-9	-8	17.6	15.1	2.57	15.5	14.6	0.96
Antoine Walker	60	60	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	0.14	-17	-9	-8	16.8	15.2	1.55	15.1	15.0	0.11
Calbert Cheaney	47	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.36	-25	-1	-24	18.2	14.2	4.03	14.6	15.5	-0.88
Vitaly Potapenko	48	47	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.17	-20	-6	-14	17.7	14.7	3.03	15.5	14.6	0.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	37	38	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.28	24	2	22	15.2	14.9	0.33	19.2	14.2	4.98
Jamal Mashburn	50	51	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.15	19	7	12	15.7	14.2	1.53	16.8	15.5	1.31
Voshon Lenard	54	54	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.20	17	9	8	15.9	13.9	1.96	16.6	15.8	0.76
Anthony Carter	64	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	17	-8	15.1	15.0	0.11	15.1	18.9	-3.78
P.J. Brown	45	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.14	14	12	2	15.2	14.9	0.31	16.5	16.0	0.53
Alonzo Mourning	40	41	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.16	14	12	2	15.7	14.6	1.12	18.0	14.9	3.14
Otis Thorpe	36	36	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.02	9	17	-8	14.8	15.2	-0.44	15.0	17.1	-2.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	31	32	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	17	-8	15.3	14.9	0.42	16.7	16.0	0.70
Mark Strickland	42	41	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.11	7	19	-12	14.2	15.7	-1.53	15.5	16.8	-1.31
Rex Walters	29	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	24	-22	13.2	15.9	-2.68	14.3	17.1	-2.79
Duane Causwell	16	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	23	-20	14.1	15.2	-1.19	14.5	16.6	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 83, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.2%
CLE 75, CHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
SAC 81, LAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%