NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	8.3 [205]		MVP	Chris Webber (SAC): +35.1%
Sacramento Kings	107		Comeback	6.0 [212]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -31.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Kersey	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	13	55%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.04
Malik Rose	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	8	55%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Mario Elie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	5	87%	0.12	5	-0.21	5	100%	0.05
Avery Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.03	16	42%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.32	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32	-0.07	-0.23	0.01	18	60%	-0.05	6	-0.27	19	74%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.23,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.08	0.23	-0.04	27	55%	0.35	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.08	-0.01	8	50%	0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	7	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	10	41%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.21	-0.21	-0.17	-0.05	-0.02	21	42%	-0.10	5	-0.10	10	70%	-0.01
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.09	0.01	13	32%	-0.19	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.2	27.6	15.7	29.3	2.4	33.9	134.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +30.8%

SAS -16.7%

SAC +19.3%

SAC +10.5%

SAC +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	13.0	14.1	15.2	97.2	100.9	101.7
season	15.5	13.8		101.6	102.9
opponent	14.7	15.4		100.7	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.2	12.2	12.4	13.3	13.0
SAC	11.5	16.6	12.4	16.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	39	40	0.37	-0.87	1.24	-0.04	14	-18	32	13.2	12.9	0.28	13.3	14.6	-1.27
Jerome Kersey	48	47	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.08	-2	-2	0	13.5	12.6	0.86	13.0	15.1	-2.09
Terry Porter	46	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.24	6	-10	16	13.2	12.9	0.26	14.1	14.2	-0.06
Antonio Daniels	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-4	4	13.7	12.8	0.90	15.4	13.6	1.76
Jaren Jackson	45	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-9	14	12.3	13.6	-1.28	15.2	13.3	1.88
Samaki Walker	24	21	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	7	-18	13.3	13.0	0.34	13.4	14.3	-0.89
Avery Johnson	73	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	2	-8	12.9	13.4	-0.49	13.9	14.6	-0.67
David Robinson	52	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	0	-4	13.0	13.1	-0.09	15.3	13.0	2.32
Tim Duncan	97	97	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.38	-7	3	-10	12.9	14.2	-1.30	14.0	15.8	-1.79
Mario Elie	74	76	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.33	-15	11	-26	13.0	13.2	-0.23	13.9	14.7	-0.73

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	93	91	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-9	22	13.8	16.9	-3.17	13.1	12.4	0.73
Jason Williams	93	94	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-7	18	13.7	17.1	-3.35	13.0	13.1	-0.06
Jon Barry	45	45	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-1	6	16.8	12.2	4.58	12.9	13.1	-0.24
Peja Stojakovic	45	44	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.49	-3	7	-10	16.0	12.8	3.19	13.2	12.9	0.30
Vlade Divac	79	79	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-4	12	13.9	14.8	-0.90	12.8	13.6	-0.71
Corliss Williamson	53	53	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.03	2	2	0	12.2	16.1	-3.87	13.2	12.9	0.25
Scot Pollard	29	31	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	9	-14	15.8	13.5	2.23	13.3	12.9	0.37
Nick Anderson	69	70	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.10	4	0	4	12.7	16.8	-4.10	12.9	13.2	-0.34
Darrick Martin	14	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	11	-18	15.9	13.9	1.98	13.1	13.0	0.06
Lawrence Funderburke	10	11	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	12	-20	16.3	13.9	2.38	12.7	13.1	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 102, MIL 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.78,0.65,0.54,0.53,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	91.8%
NJN 83, BOS 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.61,0.68,0.89,0.99,0.95,1	91.4%
TOR 112, MIN 117	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.18,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.39,0.37,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.9,1	91.3%