NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	8.8 [135]		MVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): +25.0%
Vancouver Grizzlies	93		Comeback	7.8 [100]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -26.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.19	0.13	0.08	0.02	20	71%	0.25	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.06
James Posey	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	5	42%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	0.00	5	40%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	87%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Bryant Stith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.02	16	53%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Herren	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	9	46%	-0.11	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.09
Nick Van Exel	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.26	-0.15	-0.13	-0.01	16	37%	-0.17	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.02

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.25	0.25	-0.02	0.26	-0.00	5	42%	0.25	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Dickerson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.03,0,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.02	16	58%	0.10	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.11
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	12	54%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.05
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.14	0.08	-0.03	10	46%	0.13	6	-0.16	4	75%	0.01
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.07,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.07,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.09	-0.04	31	43%	-0.05	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	29.2	14.7	26.3	2.3	34.6	130.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +5.0%

VAN +11.3%

VAN +42.5%

DEN -15.1%

VAN +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	VAN	NBA	DEN	VAN	NBA
this game	14.9	16.1	15.2	95.8	102.2	101.7
season	14.8	15.9		101.5	99.5
opponent	15.0	15.0		105.9	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.8	14.3	15.3	17.9	14.9
VAN	14.3	15.1	16.0	20.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Rogers	12	12	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.08	11	-13	24	11.7	15.4	-3.72	16.0	16.1	-0.09
Bryant Stith	19	20	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.13	2	-4	6	14.9	14.9	-0.03	16.7	15.9	0.86
James Posey	43	41	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.04	4	-6	10	13.6	16.0	-2.35	15.6	16.5	-0.94
Chris Herren	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-1	0	16.3	14.8	1.57	16.4	16.0	0.41
Keon Clark	33	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	4	-10	15.1	14.8	0.27	15.8	16.3	-0.50
Raef LaFrentz	69	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	0	-2	15.2	14.3	0.89	16.7	14.5	2.15
Nick Van Exel	86	82	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-1	0	14.8	16.3	-1.57	16.0	16.4	-0.41
George McCloud	46	44	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.47	-3	1	-4	16.1	13.8	2.23	17.1	15.1	2.05
Antonio McDyess	76	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.40	-7	5	-12	15.1	14.1	1.08	15.7	17.6	-1.90
Ron Mercer	82	77	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.59	-7	5	-12	15.0	14.7	0.26	15.6	18.9	-3.29

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Scott	37	36	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.64	-5	7	-12	16.2	16.0	0.23	13.6	15.7	-2.10
Michael Dickerson	84	89	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	16.0	17.0	-1.00	15.0	14.3	0.62
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	84	87	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.46	-2	4	-6	16.3	13.1	3.18	14.8	16.2	-1.46
Mike Bibby	82	86	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.47	-4	6	-10	16.1	15.6	0.58	14.8	16.3	-1.57
Cherokee Parks	27	30	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	-4	10	15.5	16.3	-0.79	16.8	14.1	2.71
Felipe Lopez	23	26	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	-9	20	16.5	15.9	0.60	18.5	13.6	4.99
Othella Harrington	67	68	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	-5	12	15.7	17.2	-1.54	14.4	16.3	-1.93
Milt Palacio	9	9	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	-4	10	15.6	16.1	-0.58	16.3	14.8	1.57
Bryant Reeves	42	44	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	12	-22	16.4	15.8	0.56	13.6	16.1	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.59,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 101, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.22,0.15,0.42,1	89.2%
CHA 99, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.37,0.45,0.34,0.46,0.32,0.15,0.33,0.42,1	89.1%
IND 93, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.12,0.22,0.58,1	89.1%