NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	107		Excitement	5.1 [794]		MVP	Chris Mills (GSW): +12.0%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	1.0 [260]		LVP	Dikembe Mutombo (ATL): -12.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.05	-0.03	17	56%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Terry Cummings	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	15	51%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	17	50%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	15	51%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.04
Tony Farmer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	12	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	8	24%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	13	53%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Chris Crawford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	13	45%	-0.02	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	27	55%	0.05	5	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Alan Henderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	13	31%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04	5	-0.09	10	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.7	24.1	15.7	26.2	2.3	35.4	132.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +34.7%

ATL -4.0%

GSW +2.3%

GSW +16.0%

GSW +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ATL	NBA	GSW	ATL	NBA
this game	14.0	14.5	15.2	105.9	98.0	101.7
season	14.7	15.4		97.2	99.3
opponent	15.2	14.7		105.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.7	12.3	12.7	16.4	14.0
ATL	13.5	15.3	15.6	13.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mookie Blaylock	86	85	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.17	17	-9	26	13.7	15.8	-2.13	15.6	8.9	6.71
Antawn Jamison	67	66	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-2	12	14.4	13.2	1.14	14.7	14.2	0.50
Adonal Foyle	51	53	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.00	15	-7	22	13.3	14.7	-1.45	15.5	13.5	2.03
Jason Caffey	52	52	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-5	18	12.9	15.1	-2.16	15.7	13.3	2.33
John Starks	78	79	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	7	-6	14.1	13.5	0.61	14.5	14.7	-0.26
Chris Mills	59	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	8	-8	14.2	13.7	0.51	13.4	16.1	-2.73
Chris Carr	15	15	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.06	7	1	6	14.9	13.8	1.11	15.3	14.4	0.95
Terry Cummings	55	53	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.34	-11	19	-30	15.1	12.7	2.38	13.0	16.2	-3.17
Tony Farmer	27	27	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	11	-14	12.8	14.4	-1.60	15.2	14.3	0.90
Vonteego Cummings	15	16	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.10	-9	17	-26	15.8	13.7	2.13	8.9	15.6	-6.71

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cal Bowdler	17	17	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-10	12	13.6	14.7	-1.13	13.6	14.1	-0.48
Anthony Johnson	7	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-6	4	14.7	14.5	0.20	10.1	14.3	-4.20
Lorenzen Wright	40	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-7	6	13.8	15.0	-1.12	13.7	14.1	-0.40
Jason Terry	75	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-9	10	13.6	17.3	-3.70	14.4	13.0	1.35
Bimbo Coles	65	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	-2	-4	15.4	13.0	2.37	13.2	15.3	-2.06
Chris Crawford	61	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	2	-12	14.5	14.5	-0.00	14.5	13.2	1.32
Alan Henderson	72	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	1	-10	15.4	12.4	3.01	14.1	13.8	0.28
Isaiah Rider	95	95	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-2	-4	14.6	13.7	0.91	14.2	10.7	3.53
Dikembe Mutombo	73	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.17	-9	1	-10	14.4	14.9	-0.46	14.1	13.6	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 82, ORL 73	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0	95.7%
DAL 105, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
SEA 109, TOR 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.5%