NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	6.3 [545]		MVP	George McCloud (DEN): +18.3%
Sacramento Kings	126		Comeback	4.2 [635]		LVP	Jason Williams (SAC): -14.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.07	-0.03	13	65%	0.22	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.04	0.03	21	59%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	83%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	17	53%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	16	47%	-0.01	5	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Raef LaFrentz	-0.13	0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	0.07	-0.10	0.09	15	66%	-0.06	2	-0.07	5	20%	-0.07

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.09	0.04	21	65%	0.20	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.01
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.05	0.06	6	114%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.05	-0.03	9	70%	0.12	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.04	8	70%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	77%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	63%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	12	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	17	40%	-0.10	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.6	26.2	14.8	23.7	2.0	26.3	119.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +13.3%

SAC +8.4%

SAC +18.6%

SAC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	13.9	13.3	15.2	110.5	117.8	101.7
season	14.8	13.8		101.5	102.9
opponent	14.7	15.0		100.7	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.9	13.8	15.8	13.4	13.9
SAC	13.3	11.6	13.1	15.4	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	58	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-11	12	14.0	13.8	0.21	13.1	13.5	-0.37
Roy Rogers	22	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	-3	-4	16.7	13.2	3.49	12.4	13.5	-1.02
Nick Van Exel	86	90	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.25	3	-13	16	13.2	17.3	-4.08	13.6	11.6	1.91
Antonio McDyess	77	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-8	6	13.5	15.2	-1.76	14.2	10.9	3.22
Ron Mercer	85	87	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-4	-2	13.2	16.8	-3.55	13.3	12.8	0.49
Raef LaFrentz	91	95	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-8	6	13.3	17.8	-4.46	13.4	12.4	0.94
Chris Herren	19	17	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.04	-13	3	-16	17.3	13.2	4.08	11.6	13.6	-1.91
Keon Clark	20	21	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	15.4	13.6	1.82	10.3	14.0	-3.69
George McCloud	67	68	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.18	-15	5	-20	14.7	12.6	2.15	13.3	13.2	0.07

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Barry	47	46	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-4	18	13.5	13.0	0.50	14.5	13.5	0.99
Darrick Martin	32	31	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-4	18	13.5	13.1	0.40	15.5	13.3	2.17
Lawrence Funderburke	35	33	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.22	11	-1	12	14.6	12.6	1.96	15.1	13.4	1.70
Chris Webber	90	89	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-1	12	13.4	12.5	0.93	13.7	15.0	-1.27
Tyrone Corbin	24	24	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	3	4	14.5	12.9	1.55	13.9	13.9	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	54	53	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	11	-12	13.0	13.5	-0.51	14.2	13.7	0.53
Peja Stojakovic	19	18	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	8	-6	12.8	13.4	-0.56	15.2	13.7	1.57
Scot Pollard	19	18	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	8	-6	12.8	13.4	-0.56	15.2	13.7	1.57
Nick Anderson	70	69	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	12	-14	13.0	13.8	-0.81	13.0	15.7	-2.65
Jason Williams	77	76	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.08	-5	15	-20	13.1	13.6	-0.48	13.2	15.8	-2.58
Vlade Divac	68	68	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	13	-16	12.5	14.5	-1.98	13.4	14.9	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.2,0.21,0.35,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.68,0.71,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.97,0.95,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 99, ATL 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.46,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.8%
GSW 86, LAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.7,0.71,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%
MIA 76, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.7%