NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	100		Excitement	5.1 [492]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +14.5%
Seattle SuperSonics	110		Comeback	1.3 [601]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -19.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	7	65%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Hubert Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.00	19	52%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Michael Finley	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.09	-0.04	0.08	22	62%	0.00	1	-0.03	11	73%	-0.02
Samaki Walker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Anstey	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	14	59%	0.02	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.18	-0.02	-0.01	13	28%	-0.12	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.02	0.04	15	80%	0.19	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	6	74%	0.05	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	63%	0.03	1	-0.02	11	64%	-0.01
Don MacLean	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	14	55%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	71%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	5	43%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	12	52%	0.02	6	-0.12	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	67.1	1.7	27.1	14.7	26.0	2.5	31.8	170.9
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +46.5%

SEA +6.0%

SEA +6.2%

DAL -7.8%

DAL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SEA	NBA	DAL	SEA	NBA
this game	14.4	14.1	15.8	99.0	108.9	99.6
season	15.9	15.4		99.7	102.4
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.8	16.0	17.4	10.7	14.4
SEA	12.9	14.7	14.7	14.2	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	51	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-9	8	12.2	16.7	-4.54	14.2	14.0	0.26
Chris Anstey	40	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.01	-6	-4	-2	14.0	14.7	-0.62	12.6	15.0	-2.42
A.C. Green	48	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-5	0	15.3	13.6	1.73	13.9	14.2	-0.29
Samaki Walker	35	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-5	0	15.4	13.9	1.49	14.4	13.9	0.41
Shawn Bradley	84	83	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-7	4	14.6	13.4	1.29	14.5	12.1	2.47
Hubert Davis	87	87	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-7	4	14.7	12.7	1.99	14.5	11.6	2.84
Dirk Nowitzki	66	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	4	-18	15.1	13.2	1.88	14.4	13.5	0.93
Michael Finley	94	94	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	3	-16	14.1	19.1	-5.07	13.6	20.3	-6.66

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	61	60	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-2	14	14.6	13.3	1.35	15.7	12.6	3.06
Vladimir Stepania	71	72	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	1	8	14.2	13.9	0.32	14.5	14.3	0.16
Vin Baker	67	67	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	0	10	15.2	11.9	3.33	15.1	13.0	2.10
Don MacLean	49	48	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.02	13	-3	16	13.7	14.4	-0.69	16.0	13.0	2.96
Hersey Hawkins	49	48	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.02	13	-3	16	13.7	14.4	-0.69	16.0	13.0	2.96
Jelani McCoy	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.19	1	9	-8	12.8	16.3	-3.48	13.6	15.8	-2.14
Detlef Schrempf	52	53	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	13	-16	14.4	13.7	0.69	13.0	16.0	-2.96
John Crotty	40	41	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	12	-14	13.3	14.6	-1.35	12.6	15.7	-3.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.86,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, CHH 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.96,1	95.2%
NJN 78, CHH 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
PHI 99, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	95.0%