NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	5.9 [370]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): +19.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	117		Comeback	2.5 [701]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -30.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Fortson	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.03	-0.01	11	78%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.02	26	63%	0.16	2	-0.09	13	85%	0.02
Johnny Taylor	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	4	87%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	12	54%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Eric Washington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	58%	0.01	5	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.16	-0.14	0.00	14	34%	-0.17	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.02	-0.06	15	65%	0.19	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.19	0.08	0.08	12	84%	0.19	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	10	58%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Dennis Rodman	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	1	75%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.05	0.00	19	57%	0.00	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	10	20%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.5	27.8	16.8	26.4	2.5	31.5	133.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +19.0%

DEN -10.8%

LAL +13.0%

LAL +26.3%

LAL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.0	15.8	108.3	123.2	99.6
season	15.5	14.9		100.7	104.7
opponent	15.8	15.6		102.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	15.8	15.7	15.1	15.1
LAL	15.5	13.0	15.6	16.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	48	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-11	9	14.1	16.2	-2.08	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Eric Washington	28	27	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-7	1	16.2	14.7	1.59	15.7	14.7	0.99
Johnny Taylor	52	51	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-9	5	14.1	16.4	-2.29	15.2	14.8	0.36
Bryant Stith	44	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	-4	-5	16.4	14.1	2.29	14.8	15.2	-0.36
Chauncey Billups	73	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-4	-5	14.8	16.2	-1.38	14.7	16.0	-1.26
Danny Fortson	66	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	-1	-11	15.7	13.8	1.93	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Nick Van Exel	91	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.14	-11	-2	-9	15.0	16.6	-1.56	15.1	14.6	0.46
Antonio McDyess	78	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	-1	-11	15.3	14.6	0.70	15.3	13.7	1.62

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Harper	55	57	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.11	13	0	13	15.3	14.6	0.66	15.6	14.4	1.29
Kobe Bryant	72	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	3	7	15.5	13.4	2.11	14.9	15.8	-0.89
Glen Rice	72	72	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.01	13	0	13	15.1	15.0	0.10	15.5	14.0	1.44
Shaquille O'Neal	41	41	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	4	5	14.5	15.5	-1.00	16.6	14.0	2.59
J.R. Reid	37	36	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	6	1	15.4	14.8	0.66	14.9	15.2	-0.29
Robert Horry	45	47	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	4	5	13.6	16.3	-2.72	15.1	15.1	-0.04
Rick Fox	46	49	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	8	-3	14.2	15.8	-1.62	14.6	15.7	-1.05
Dennis Rodman	67	67	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	14	-15	16.1	12.4	3.69	14.6	16.4	-1.90
Derek Fisher	40	39	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	13	-13	14.6	15.3	-0.66	14.4	15.6	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.81,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 74, NOH 89	0.5,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
UTA 100, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.73,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,1	94.0%
LAC 89, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.95,0.98,1,1	93.8%