NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	3.3 [700]		MVP	David Robinson (SAS): +8.1%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.5 [727]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -11.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Keon Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Taylor	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	17	41%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	15	53%	0.02	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.09	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	7	14%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	14	34%	-0.07	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	10	74%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	17	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.01	0.03	4	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	5	100%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.02	0.07	10	65%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	83%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Gaze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	10	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	48%	-0.05	2	-0.00	7	71%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.0	1.8	25.1	15.8	21.3	2.4	24.3	110.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.9%

DEN -5.2%

DEN -9.9%

SAS +10.8%

DEN -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.0	15.8	90.1	121.7	99.6
season	15.5	15.9		100.7	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.6		92.7	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.1	19.0	16.2	17.0	16.5
SAS	14.7	16.1	15.2	14.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	30	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.26	-10	-20	10	19.4	15.0	4.42	15.2	14.9	0.23
Cory Alexander	30	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.18	-11	-19	8	17.3	16.1	1.18	16.4	14.4	2.01
Eric Williams	38	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.42	-21	-9	-12	18.6	14.9	3.71	15.1	14.9	0.21
Danny Fortson	49	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-20	10	15.5	17.6	-2.04	14.6	15.4	-0.81
Bryant Stith	42	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.32	-19	-11	-8	17.5	15.6	1.86	15.6	14.6	0.99
Nick Van Exel	55	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-19	8	15.6	17.8	-2.21	14.9	15.2	-0.39
Johnny Taylor	70	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.33	-24	-6	-18	16.0	18.0	-2.05	14.9	15.3	-0.32
Chauncey Billups	62	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.19	-20	-10	-10	15.8	18.0	-2.19	14.3	16.6	-2.24
Antonio McDyess	79	80	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.17	-24	-6	-18	15.6	22.0	-6.37	15.0	14.7	0.30

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	68	67	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.11	22	8	14	14.6	16.2	-1.56	15.7	18.5	-2.75
Avery Johnson	49	50	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.01	13	17	-4	14.3	15.8	-1.42	16.0	17.0	-0.96
Jerome Kersey	44	45	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	15	0	16.4	13.7	2.72	16.9	16.0	0.87
David Robinson	56	56	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	11	19	-8	14.9	15.2	-0.26	15.5	18.0	-2.44
Mario Elie	50	50	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.03	12	18	-6	14.7	15.4	-0.64	15.7	17.4	-1.76
Will Perdue	36	35	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.39	19	11	8	15.2	14.9	0.26	18.0	15.5	2.44
Sean Elliott	41	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.04	7	23	-16	14.3	15.6	-1.34	15.4	17.3	-1.96
Jaren Jackson	27	26	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.39	18	12	6	15.3	14.9	0.40	18.8	15.6	3.22
Antonio Daniels	36	33	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.24	12	18	-6	15.4	14.7	0.71	17.2	16.0	1.21
Steve Kerr	22	23	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.11	5	25	-20	16.1	14.7	1.42	15.4	16.8	-1.39
Andrew Gaze	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.23	8	22	-14	10.4	15.4	-4.96	20.5	16.2	4.31
Malik Rose	24	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.27	8	22	-14	16.2	14.6	1.56	18.5	15.7	2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 86, DAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
LAL 105, SAC 124	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.77,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
NOP 112, MIN 124	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%