NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	10.7 [24]		MVP	Pete Chilcutt (VAN): +13.3%
Vancouver Grizzlies	88		Comeback	4.4 [404]		LVP	Mike Bibby (VAN): -29.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Elliott	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	-0.02	0.07	-0.01	11	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.10
Mario Elie	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	10	57%	0.06	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Steve Kerr	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	8	75%	0.15	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.08	-0.01	7	43%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.25,-0.3,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	0.00	24	44%	-0.07	4	-0.16	7	86%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.25	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25	-0.16	-0.09	-0.01	13	27%	-0.12	2	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.11	-0.15	-0.01	8	36%	-0.10	2	-0.15	6	33%	-0.05

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	4	137%	0.18	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Henderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
DeJuan Wheat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	7	50%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.06
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.35,-0.33,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.18	0.03	-0.02	23	45%	0.17	7	-0.30	9	89%	0.05
Bryant Reeves	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.09	-0.02	15	29%	-0.19	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.10
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.29	-0.29	-0.04	-0.15	0.10	15	56%	-0.12	5	-0.17	2	50%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.9	2.5	24.5	16.4	23.4	1.7	41.0	1.7	19.1	151.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	1.7	18.8	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +11.6%

VAN -3.8%

SAS +19.7%

SAS +16.1%

SAS +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	VAN	NBA	SAS	VAN	NBA
this game	15.1	16.5	15.8	91.1	88.0	99.6
season	15.9	16.4		101.1	95.7
opponent	15.1	15.9		105.4	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	18.9	15.1	14.3	14.4	11.8	15.1
VAN	17.1	17.6	18.4	13.8	15.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Elliott	64	63	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.33	15	-11	26	14.7	15.9	-1.19	15.9	17.6	-1.68
Avery Johnson	80	79	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.37	11	-7	18	14.8	16.5	-1.75	16.2	17.7	-1.52
Tim Duncan	90	89	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.39	8	-4	12	14.5	20.4	-5.86	16.4	17.6	-1.27
Steve Kerr	60	59	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.21	12	-8	20	14.7	15.8	-1.08	17.2	15.5	1.65
David Robinson	60	60	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-3	10	15.5	14.6	0.93	16.9	15.9	0.98
Will Perdue	16	15	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	-1	6	12.2	15.7	-3.43	19.9	15.9	3.95
Antonio Daniels	21	20	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.12	-7	11	-18	16.5	14.8	1.75	18.2	16.1	2.11
Jerome Kersey	9	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	8	-12	19.1	14.7	4.36	14.0	16.8	-2.82
Mario Elie	56	54	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	11	-18	14.5	15.9	-1.35	17.1	15.8	1.31
Jaren Jackson	13	14	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	12	-20	19.2	14.5	4.61	15.5	16.7	-1.17
Malik Rose	36	36	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.07	-12	16	-28	17.4	13.9	3.50	14.8	17.5	-2.66

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pete Chilcutt	27	26	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.14	3	-7	10	16.3	16.6	-0.29	10.7	16.7	-6.04
Michael Smith	28	27	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-10	16	17.2	16.2	0.93	16.7	14.6	2.19
DeJuan Wheat	16	16	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.06	4	-8	12	16.6	16.5	0.06	17.0	14.8	2.21
J.R. Henderson	2	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	0	-4	16.5	16.5	-0.01	17.3	15.1	2.26
Bryant Reeves	78	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-2	0	16.0	18.4	-2.38	15.3	14.4	0.86
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	98	98	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-4	4	16.5	16.5	0.01	15.1	17.3	-2.26
Felipe Lopez	78	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	15.8	19.0	-3.19	15.5	13.5	2.04
Cherokee Parks	56	56	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	6	-16	17.1	15.8	1.28	15.1	15.1	0.01
Mike Bibby	84	85	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.32	-8	4	-12	16.5	16.6	-0.06	14.8	17.0	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.31,0.29,0.05,0.04,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.1,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 95, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.41,0.41,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.16,0.54,0.32,0.21,0.09,0,0	89.1%
WAS 120, LAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.33,0.17,0.54,0.39,0.29,0.15,0.08,0	88.6%
NYK 118, MIL 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.24,0,0	88.1%