NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	72		Excitement	4.2 [602]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +10.0%
Indiana Pacers	85		Comeback	1.1 [608]		LVP	Rex Walters (MIA): -13.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Blue Edwards	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Porter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	3	89%	0.05	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	15	50%	0.06	5	-0.11	4	25%	-0.03
Dan Majerle	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	8	50%	0.01	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.02	-0.03	0.08	16	44%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.02	10	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	9	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	4	80%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rik Smits	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	13	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	10	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	8	19%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.7	28.4	17.4	25.6	2.5	30.4	132.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +19.8%

IND +5.6%

IND +0.2%

IND +24.7%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.9	17.2	15.8	86.7	98.8	99.6
season	16.6	16.4		101.3	105.4
opponent	16.0	16.7		101.2	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.3	17.2	16.4	15.5	16.9
IND	16.0	15.6	18.6	18.8	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	10	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-11	9	15.8	17.0	-1.24	17.2	17.2	-0.04
Rex Walters	29	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-11	9	16.7	17.0	-0.31	17.4	17.1	0.29
Clar. Weatherspoon	34	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-9	5	16.7	17.0	-0.26	16.8	17.4	-0.61
Blue Edwards	23	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-6	-1	16.1	17.2	-1.11	17.5	17.0	0.49
P.J. Brown	50	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-7	1	17.1	16.6	0.42	17.4	16.8	0.55
Terry Porter	56	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-8	3	16.5	17.7	-1.15	17.1	17.5	-0.41
Tim Hardaway	75	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-8	3	16.6	19.4	-2.75	17.6	14.0	3.56
Dan Majerle	64	64	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.01	-18	5	-23	17.5	15.0	2.45	16.8	18.3	-1.52
Alonzo Mourning	74	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.06	-16	3	-19	17.4	12.8	4.61	17.1	17.9	-0.83

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	65	61	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-1	15	16.8	18.4	-1.64	17.1	16.4	0.72
Mark Jackson	45	44	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	2	9	17.4	17.0	0.45	17.6	16.1	1.54
Rik Smits	46	45	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	0	13	16.6	17.9	-1.29	17.4	16.3	1.01
Chris Mullin	45	43	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	3	7	17.2	17.2	-0.02	17.7	16.1	1.58
Dale Davis	46	44	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	1	11	17.1	17.3	-0.26	17.2	16.5	0.76
Antonio Davis	48	46	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	10	-7	17.4	17.0	0.38	16.6	17.3	-0.68
Travis Best	41	39	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	11	-9	17.0	17.4	-0.45	16.1	17.6	-1.54
Jalen Rose	46	46	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	12	-11	17.4	16.9	0.53	16.2	17.7	-1.51
Sam Perkins	32	31	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.17	-2	15	-17	18.0	16.7	1.25	16.2	17.3	-1.17
Austin Croshere	16	16	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	12	-11	18.1	17.0	1.15	16.1	17.1	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 91, DET 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
BOS 93, UTA 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.74,0.83,0.92,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
ORL 89, SAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.1%