NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	87		Excitement	6.5 [299]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +31.2%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	1.0 [537]		LVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): -20.0%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.08	-0.03	17	59%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Cherokee Parks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	83%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Felipe Lopez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	57%	0.08	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Mike Bibby	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.03	-0.04	10	46%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Tony Massenburg	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Wheat	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Michael Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.08	0.00	10	46%	-0.08	4	-0.12	8	62%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.19	0.14	0.01	16	79%	0.35	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Negele Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	17	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	4	42%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	17	42%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	9	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	5	41%	-0.10	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.8	28.4	17.7	27.3	2.5	40.3	145.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN -0.4%

VAN -0.8%

TOR +46.3%

TOR +6.0%

VAN -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	TOR	NBA	VAN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.9	15.8	94.6	109.7	99.6
season	16.4	15.6		95.7	99.0
opponent	15.9	15.1		101.2	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	14.6	15.6	17.4	13.6	15.3
TOR	18.1	13.2	16.9	15.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Wheat	20	22	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-19	23	16.9	14.8	2.16	16.1	15.8	0.29
Felipe Lopez	3	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-15	15	21.0	15.1	5.93	10.0	16.0	-6.00
Pete Chilcutt	22	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-14	13	14.6	15.5	-0.82	13.9	16.5	-2.66
Doug West	47	47	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-13	11	16.2	14.2	1.99	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Michael Smith	29	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-12	9	15.6	15.1	0.48	16.4	15.6	0.79
Tony Massenburg	35	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-10	5	14.8	15.5	-0.74	16.3	15.6	0.67
Cherokee Parks	28	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	-7	-1	15.2	15.3	-0.02	15.6	16.0	-0.38
Bryant Reeves	57	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-5	-5	15.5	14.8	0.74	15.6	16.3	-0.67
Sam Mack	74	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	-2	-11	14.4	18.6	-4.17	16.4	13.6	2.79
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	73	73	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.02	-18	3	-21	15.3	15.2	0.13	16.4	14.1	2.26
Mike Bibby	72	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.04	-19	4	-23	14.8	16.9	-2.16	15.8	16.1	-0.29

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	65	65	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.07	26	-11	37	17.0	13.3	3.65	15.7	14.3	1.37
Vince Carter	80	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.01	22	-7	29	16.1	14.5	1.64	15.3	15.3	-0.05
Kevin Willis	63	63	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	2	11	17.8	11.9	5.86	15.3	15.2	0.13
Doug Christie	69	69	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.05	12	3	9	16.7	13.4	3.36	15.7	13.9	1.80
Dee Brown	40	40	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.15	13	2	11	13.2	17.9	-4.69	15.4	15.2	0.25
Tracy McGrady	45	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.26	-6	21	-27	15.9	15.9	-0.01	14.3	16.1	-1.81
Negele Knight	18	17	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	12	-9	13.6	16.4	-2.87	15.8	15.1	0.69
Alvin Williams	27	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	14	-13	18.5	14.8	3.68	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Michael Stewart	10	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	19	-23	13.7	16.1	-2.43	14.9	15.3	-0.40
John Thomas	27	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.06	-1	16	-17	12.8	17.1	-4.36	15.2	15.3	-0.14
Reggie Slater	21	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	19	-23	11.8	17.1	-5.25	14.2	15.6	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.78,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 88, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.85,1,1	93.3%
TOR 103, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.9,0.93,1,1	92.9%
DAL 103, POR 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%