NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	84		Excitement	5.6 [653]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): +26.5%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	1.9 [239]		LVP	Sam Perkins (SEA): -12.8%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Kersey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	14	62%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Hersey Hawkins	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Wingate	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	15	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Jim McIlvaine	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Detlef Schrempf	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	18	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nate McMillan	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	3	20%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.26	0.08	0.07	17	84%	0.27	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.03	23	57%	0.11	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Willie Burton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	9	26%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	9	55%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Will Perdue	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Brad Lohaus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.0	25.0	19.8	21.7	2.0	24.0	118.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.5%

SAS +7.0%

SAS +7.7%

SEA -2.6%

SAS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	17.8	15.6	98.8	112.5	102.5
season	15.3	15.9		109.3	100.9
opponent	15.9	16.2		97.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.8	10.8	17.1	17.9	15.5
SAS	16.0	18.4	18.0	19.0	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wingate	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	0.0	15.5	-15.47	15.0	17.8	-2.82
Nate McMillan	27	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-17	19	16.7	14.9	1.75	18.6	17.4	1.26
Sam Perkins	42	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-12	9	16.7	14.2	2.51	17.1	18.4	-1.33
Jerome Kersey	29	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.20	3	-18	21	15.9	15.2	0.65	18.8	17.2	1.57
Dale Ellis	38	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-14	13	15.1	15.8	-0.66	18.3	17.3	1.00
Jim McIlvaine	24	26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	-5	-5	15.4	15.5	-0.13	17.4	17.9	-0.51
Gary Payton	73	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-8	1	15.3	16.7	-1.49	17.6	19.2	-1.70
Detlef Schrempf	68	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	2	-19	15.2	16.4	-1.18	18.1	16.7	1.34
Hersey Hawkins	55	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.13	-19	4	-23	14.4	17.4	-3.03	17.3	18.6	-1.27
Vin Baker	69	70	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	0.02	-23	8	-31	15.6	14.9	0.66	17.6	18.5	-0.90

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	82	81	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.00	22	-7	29	18.2	12.3	5.85	15.8	9.7	6.00
Will Perdue	66	65	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.09	23	-8	31	17.8	17.8	-0.05	14.8	17.5	-2.65
Jaren Jackson	69	68	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-2	19	17.9	17.3	0.66	15.4	15.6	-0.15
Avery Johnson	39	37	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.01	11	4	7	17.6	17.9	-0.30	15.2	15.7	-0.55
Monty Williams	64	60	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.01	11	4	7	17.1	19.5	-2.42	15.3	15.8	-0.52
Reggie Geary	37	37	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.02	8	7	1	18.2	17.5	0.75	16.9	14.4	2.47
Vinny Del Negro	48	48	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	11	-7	18.0	17.5	0.43	15.7	15.2	0.55
Willie Burton	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	15.0	17.8	-2.82	0.0	15.5	-15.47
Malik Rose	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	15.0	17.8	-2.82	0.0	15.5	-15.47
Brad Lohaus	21	20	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.15	-8	23	-31	18.0	17.7	0.22	17.5	14.8	2.65
Carl Herrera	12	9	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.12	-13	28	-41	16.4	18.0	-1.58	8.4	16.3	-7.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.85,0.75,0.7,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 83, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%
MIL 80, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.99,1	93.5%
BOS 100, MIA 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.74,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	93.4%