NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	6.2 [527]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +6.6%
New Jersey Nets	93		Comeback	33.6 [26]		LVP	Keith Van Horn (NJN): -25.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	16	71%	0.23	6	-0.16	10	80%	0.06
Voshon Lenard	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07	-0.05	0.11	-0.01	17	47%	0.11	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Keith Askins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	9	68%	0.05	4	-0.09	7	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	5	40%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	6	50%	-0.06	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.03	14	53%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	65%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Cage	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.00	17	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Jayson Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.15	-0.03	16	51%	-0.04	6	-0.18	5	100%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.26	-0.26	-0.18	-0.10	-0.03	19	31%	-0.08	3	-0.18	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	28.4	15.3	29.6	2.3	37.6	138.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +21.8%

MIA +13.7%

MIA +9.8%

MIA +5.4%

NJN -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	15.2	15.9	15.6	102.2	101.1	102.5
season	15.8	15.6		104.7	104.9
opponent	15.2	16.2		103.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	18.2	16.0	14.4	15.2
NJN	14.3	14.5	17.5	17.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	36	34	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.49	13	-11	24	16.2	14.6	1.54	16.2	15.7	0.51
Eric Murdock	56	54	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.35	15	-13	28	15.6	14.6	1.00	16.8	14.6	2.18
Voshon Lenard	81	79	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-6	14	14.7	19.1	-4.43	15.7	17.0	-1.27
Dan Majerle	68	67	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.43	6	-4	10	15.9	13.5	2.39	16.2	15.2	1.03
Alonzo Mourning	82	82	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.39	7	-5	12	15.0	16.9	-1.91	16.5	11.5	4.95
Keith Askins	33	33	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	11	-20	14.6	15.6	-0.96	14.5	16.7	-2.27
Tim Hardaway	41	43	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.07	-14	16	-30	15.2	15.2	0.03	15.8	16.0	-0.23
P.J. Brown	68	68	-0.47	0.97	-1.43	0.00	-16	18	-34	15.0	15.8	-0.84	15.1	18.2	-3.11

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	37	37	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.00	8	-10	18	16.8	15.3	1.55	17.5	13.7	3.75
Michael Cage	16	16	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.06	7	-9	16	17.0	15.7	1.32	17.6	14.7	2.82
Lucious Harris	10	11	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-6	10	10.9	16.5	-5.62	16.2	15.1	1.08
Brian Evans	1	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	2	-6	8.0	16.0	-8.00	19.0	15.1	3.86
Kerry Kittles	67	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-2	2	16.7	13.9	2.74	14.8	16.3	-1.56
Sherman Douglas	38	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-2	2	17.5	14.8	2.66	15.5	15.1	0.43
Kendall Gill	77	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.50	0	-2	2	16.4	13.6	2.76	14.7	17.6	-2.89
Sam Cassell	69	71	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.41	-8	6	-14	15.1	18.5	-3.42	15.4	14.8	0.53
Jayson Williams	76	77	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.38	-9	7	-16	15.7	17.0	-1.32	14.7	17.6	-2.82
Keith Van Horn	69	71	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.45	-8	6	-14	15.0	18.6	-3.54	14.5	17.5	-3.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.92,0.83,0.69,0.55,0.22,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 85, PHX 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.69,0.54,0.32,0.42,0	93.4%
DEN 103, CHH 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	92.5%
MIN 82, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.87,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.27,0	92.3%