NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	3.4 [1068]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +6.7%
Los Angeles Clippers	80		Comeback	1.0 [1204]		LVP	Lorenzen Wright (LAC): -12.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	15	53%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.05	0.02	-0.07	13	41%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	-0.01	-0.04	17	62%	0.10	4	-0.07	11	73%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	10	43%	0.02	1	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Duane Causwell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	12	35%	-0.05	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	13	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	17	45%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	12	57%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Keith Closs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	4	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Pooh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	13	25%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	25.2	15.7	25.0	2.4	27.5	120.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.0%

MIA +2.1%

MIA +2.2%

MIA +7.7%

MIA +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	16.2	17.7	15.6	104.7	94.1	102.5
season	15.8	15.5		104.7	101.0
opponent	15.1	16.2		109.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	16.6	16.6	16.6	16.2
LAC	19.5	19.4	18.4	14.0	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	57	57	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.22	27	-18	45	15.3	17.9	-2.58	19.6	13.9	5.70
Keith Askins	60	58	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	0	9	15.1	18.8	-3.68	17.7	17.7	0.02
Tim Hardaway	54	54	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.18	24	-15	39	16.0	16.5	-0.50	20.1	13.6	6.51
P.J. Brown	69	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.09	21	-12	33	16.2	15.9	0.28	18.9	12.9	6.04
Voshon Lenard	62	62	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	5	-1	16.4	15.6	0.82	17.8	17.5	0.33
Dan Majerle	45	45	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	6	-3	17.1	15.1	2.01	16.7	18.9	-2.23
Rex Walters	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	21	-33	15.5	16.2	-0.73	12.5	18.3	-5.76
Duane Causwell	31	34	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.40	-17	26	-43	17.8	15.2	2.53	14.0	20.2	-6.20
Eric Murdock	39	39	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.31	-14	23	-37	16.6	15.8	0.88	14.9	20.1	-5.12

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stojko Vrankovic	7	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.35	12	-21	33	12.0	18.2	-6.23	15.5	16.2	-0.73
James Robinson	39	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-13	17	16.6	18.6	-1.99	16.9	15.5	1.35
Keith Closs	48	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-7	5	16.7	19.0	-2.22	17.0	15.3	1.68
Pooh Richardson	20	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.41	11	-20	31	17.3	17.8	-0.48	14.9	16.6	-1.76
Darrick Martin	57	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.17	-19	10	-29	18.3	16.6	1.71	16.6	15.4	1.14
Lorenzen Wright	70	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	17.5	18.6	-1.07	16.4	15.0	1.39
Lamond Murray	74	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.16	-11	2	-13	18.4	13.1	5.31	16.0	17.2	-1.26
Eric Piatkowski	65	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	3	-15	17.2	19.4	-2.20	16.0	16.6	-0.57
Maurice Taylor	45	46	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.14	-22	13	-35	19.9	15.2	4.71	15.2	17.4	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 129, ATL 117	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.28,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.27,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
DEN 103, DET 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
CHI 103, VAN 85	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%