NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	4.0 [970]		MVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): +12.9%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	1.1 [263]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -20.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	7	79%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Walter McCarty	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	41%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Minor	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
John Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	13	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Travis Knight	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Dana Barros	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	8	42%	-0.05	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	18	45%	-0.09	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.27	-0.02	-0.08	22	21%	-0.17	2	-0.04	4	0%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	0.00	10	83%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	9	68%	0.10	2	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	13	77%	0.11	3	-0.04	18	83%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	83%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	12	58%	0.08	6	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	3	60%	0.00	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	29%	-0.03	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Eric Washington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.01	6	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	25.3	15.4	25.6	2.6	38.4	137.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +69.7%

DEN +6.1%

BOS -8.5%

BOS -16.9%

BOS -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	14.1	15.6	101.0	113.1	102.5
season	15.1	16.2		100.2	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.1		109.5	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.8	15.9	16.4	15.9	15.1
DEN	12.9	15.4	16.3	12.4	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	23	24	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.26	12	-25	37	11.3	16.3	-4.95	11.9	14.8	-2.90
Bruce Bowen	30	31	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	13.9	15.7	-1.78	11.4	15.4	-3.97
Greg Minor	18	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-23	33	13.3	15.5	-2.20	13.4	14.3	-0.85
Travis Knight	39	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.21	3	-16	19	13.1	16.5	-3.33	13.5	14.6	-1.11
Ron Mercer	68	70	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.43	9	-22	31	13.5	18.8	-5.29	14.0	14.3	-0.28
Chauncey Billups	56	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-6	-1	16.3	13.5	2.77	14.1	14.1	-0.04
Dana Barros	44	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-7	1	13.1	16.8	-3.71	13.8	14.4	-0.53
Andrew DeClercq	59	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.09	-16	3	-19	16.5	13.1	3.33	14.6	13.5	1.11
Antoine Walker	63	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.05	-17	4	-21	17.2	11.5	5.72	15.7	11.4	4.28
Walter McCarty	43	42	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.32	-27	14	-41	16.3	14.2	2.08	15.0	13.4	1.59
Dee Brown	47	48	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.25	-25	12	-37	17.5	13.0	4.53	14.8	13.5	1.32

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	74	73	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-2	17	14.4	13.2	1.17	16.5	11.2	5.33
Eric Washington	57	57	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.07	17	-4	21	13.9	14.5	-0.59	15.1	15.2	-0.07
Bobby Jackson	75	74	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	3	7	14.0	14.5	-0.46	15.5	14.1	1.33
Dean Garrett	57	56	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	0	13	15.1	12.7	2.38	15.7	14.3	1.44
Tony Battie	67	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	0	13	14.6	13.0	1.60	15.8	13.7	2.10
Anthony Goldwire	63	61	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	11	-9	13.6	15.1	-1.48	14.4	16.3	-1.91
Johnny Newman	65	63	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.23	-4	17	-21	13.6	15.0	-1.35	13.8	17.6	-3.79
Danny Fortson	37	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	14	-15	13.4	14.5	-1.17	13.2	16.3	-3.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 97, SAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
WAS 72, DAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
LAC 96, POR 104	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1	96.3%