NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	74		Excitement	9.4 [78]		MVP	Rex Chapman (PHX): +11.0%
Miami Heat	71		Comeback	5.5 [90]		LVP	Jason Kidd (PHX): -61.4%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rex Chapman	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.11	-0.05	0.17	0.01	11	50%	0.20	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Nash	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.10	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
George McCloud	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hot Rod Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	9	46%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Mark Bryant	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.04	-0.04	7	17%	-0.11	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,0,0,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19	-0.03	-0.15	0.01	20	48%	-0.16	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Jason Kidd	-0.61	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.35,-0.35,-0.43,-0.49,-0.61	-0.26	-0.35	-0.00	15	15%	-0.35	3	-0.26	4	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	6	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.00	-0.15	0.00	16	47%	-0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	7	27%	-0.12	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26	-0.26	-0.17	-0.11	-0.02	13	44%	-0.10	6	-0.16	8	87%	0.04
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.32	-0.32	-0.04	-0.28	0.00	10	50%	-0.27	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.25,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.19	-0.14	0.00	7	0%	-0.20	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.22,-0.32,-0.48	-0.48	-0.14	-0.31	0.03	23	38%	-0.26	3	-0.22	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.7	2.0	25.6	15.8	25.6	2.4	40.4	132.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +71.2%

MIA -10.6%

MIA -25.1%

PHX +16.8%

MIA -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.5	15.6	81.3	79.8	102.5
season	15.0	15.8		105.3	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.9		99.8	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	17.1	17.7	14.2	13.1	15.5
MIA	14.8	17.4	15.2	18.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	54	54	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.51	6	-3	9	15.2	16.0	-0.83	18.2	13.9	4.37
Rex Chapman	64	61	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.44	7	-4	11	15.4	15.7	-0.23	15.1	19.5	-4.42
Clifford Robinson	74	70	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	15.6	15.1	0.48	16.3	17.3	-1.03
Jason Kidd	78	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	5	-7	15.6	15.0	0.59	16.5	16.5	-0.04
Steve Nash	40	43	0.20	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	-2	7	15.4	15.5	-0.10	18.0	15.1	2.89
Hot Rod Williams	50	49	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	2	-1	15.1	16.0	-0.86	18.3	14.3	4.01
Antonio McDyess	55	53	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.24	-6	9	-15	15.4	15.6	-0.17	15.3	18.2	-2.88
George McCloud	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	1	1	0.0	15.5	-15.51	1.0	16.7	-15.68
Mark Bryant	40	38	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.13	-2	5	-7	16.4	14.8	1.55	14.7	17.8	-3.09

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	71	72	0.23	-0.73	0.97	0.09	5	-8	13	15.7	19.5	-3.75	15.5	15.5	-0.03
Eric Murdock	17	18	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-4	5	18.6	16.0	2.57	16.2	15.3	0.82
Jamal Mashburn	68	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.26	5	-8	13	15.6	19.3	-3.70	15.5	15.6	-0.12
Ike Austin	45	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.07	-6	3	-9	17.9	15.1	2.75	15.3	15.7	-0.45
Voshon Lenard	61	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	1	-5	16.1	17.5	-1.40	15.2	16.2	-0.97
Tim Hardaway	74	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	1	-5	16.1	18.5	-2.44	15.3	16.3	-0.97
Alonzo Mourning	61	65	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.54	-3	0	-3	16.6	16.2	0.43	15.9	14.5	1.41
Dan Majerle	48	48	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.42	-9	6	-15	17.9	14.9	2.97	15.6	15.3	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.81,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.78,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.58,0.69,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.72,0.73,0.68,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.55,0.58,0	91.0%
SAC 84, VAN 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.78,0.42,0	90.7%
DAL 90, LAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.84,0	90.7%