NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	2.8 [1156]		MVP	Harold Ellis (DEN): +7.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	109		Comeback	1.1 [1223]		LVP	Dean Garrett (DEN): -10.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harold Ellis	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.03	10	80%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	12	54%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Priest Lauderdale	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	7	43%	-0.03	2	-0.02	7	71%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.01	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	13	48%	-0.03	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Eric Washington	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.01	0.04	9	45%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	0.00	0.04	12	31%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	10	69%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	9	75%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	11	58%	0.06	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.00
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	80%	0.01	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Stanley Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	5	42%	0.00	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	64%	0.01	3	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	11	52%	0.03	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Micheal Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	-0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.6	27.5	16.7	23.1	1.5	28.5	127.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +36.6%

MIN +4.1%

DEN -4.6%

MIN +13.1%

MIN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	16.6	13.8	15.6	91.6	116.0	102.5
season	16.2	14.8		96.7	105.3
opponent	15.7	15.2		104.9	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.8	18.0	18.0	14.9	16.6
MIN	13.0	12.0	16.2	14.5	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Priest Lauderdale	11	11	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.21	9	-31	40	18.7	16.4	2.36	10.5	14.3	-3.81
Johnny Newman	57	55	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-20	18	17.2	15.8	1.38	14.7	12.5	2.19
Harold Ellis	67	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-19	16	16.6	16.7	-0.10	13.3	15.2	-1.83
Tony Battie	33	33	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.04	-8	-14	6	14.3	17.9	-3.63	12.2	14.7	-2.52
Anthony Goldwire	33	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	-9	-4	17.6	16.1	1.43	14.9	13.2	1.73
Bobby Jackson	66	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.09	-13	-9	-4	16.0	18.1	-2.10	13.3	15.0	-1.66
Dean Garrett	57	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	-7	-8	17.4	15.6	1.77	15.5	11.5	3.99
Danny Fortson	42	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	-8	-6	16.6	16.6	0.00	12.8	14.7	-1.94
LaPhonso Ellis	59	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.31	-24	2	-26	17.1	16.0	1.08	14.2	13.3	0.93
Eric Washington	50	50	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.30	-27	5	-32	16.1	17.2	-1.14	13.9	13.7	0.17

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Marbury	64	64	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	6	10	14.5	12.3	2.23	17.5	14.8	2.77
Sam Mitchell	56	55	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.31	23	-1	24	13.9	13.7	0.27	16.4	17.0	-0.66
Kevin Garnett	68	69	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	8	6	13.5	14.6	-1.05	17.3	14.8	2.47
Terry Porter	46	46	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.24	19	3	16	13.5	14.1	-0.58	16.6	16.7	-0.06
Tom Gugliotta	59	62	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.17	16	6	10	15.0	11.9	3.13	17.6	14.9	2.66
Tom Hammonds	35	35	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	14	-6	15.4	12.9	2.47	16.1	17.0	-0.93
Cherokee Parks	38	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	14	-6	13.6	14.0	-0.40	16.6	16.6	-0.00
Chris Carr	60	63	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.14	2	20	-18	14.0	13.5	0.45	16.6	16.7	-0.07
Micheal Williams	18	17	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.08	7	15	-8	11.5	14.4	-2.87	13.4	17.3	-3.93
Reggie Jordan	8	8	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	22	-22	9.5	14.2	-4.72	11.4	17.1	-5.75
Stanley Roberts	18	17	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	25	-28	10.2	14.7	-4.52	15.1	17.0	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 108, LAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,1,1	96.5%
LAL 82, MEM 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
POR 79, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%