NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	106		Excitement	7.9 [232]		MVP	Walter McCarty (BOS): +13.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	1.9 [191]		LVP	Armen Gilliam (MIL): -17.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.09	0.03	13	70%	0.18	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.01	10	67%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dana Barros	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	6	72%	0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Antoine Walker	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.03	29	53%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Dee Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pervis Ellison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Travis Knight	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	4	72%	0.00	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	9	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ricky Pierce	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.10	0.00	14	57%	-0.00	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	20	62%	0.07	8	-0.18	16	69%	0.02
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.12	0.00	7	47%	-0.14	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.15
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.12	-0.02	10	50%	-0.07	2	-0.10	10	90%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.7	29.5	15.5	25.4	2.4	38.3	138.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +44.8%

MIL -14.3%

BOS +26.3%

MIL -0.8%

MIL -6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.1	16.1	15.6	112.8	108.8	102.5
season	15.1	16.0		100.2	101.1
opponent	15.1	15.1		102.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.6	16.5	13.0	16.3	15.1
MIL	14.2	16.2	17.7	16.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	82	80	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.36	14	-7	21	15.8	10.1	5.71	16.1	16.2	-0.11
Ron Mercer	45	42	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-8	23	15.4	14.8	0.56	17.3	15.1	2.22
Chauncey Billups	50	50	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-3	13	16.6	13.3	3.28	15.2	17.1	-1.93
Pervis Ellison	37	37	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	0	7	15.5	14.8	0.65	13.9	17.6	-3.66
Antoine Walker	90	87	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	4	-1	15.4	7.0	8.42	16.2	12.7	3.49
Travis Knight	19	18	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	6	-5	13.4	15.5	-2.06	19.5	15.2	4.25
Andrew DeClercq	40	38	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	6	-5	14.8	15.2	-0.42	15.9	16.2	-0.24
Dee Brown	35	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	10	-13	14.2	15.6	-1.42	15.7	16.3	-0.61
Dana Barros	47	43	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.06	-2	9	-11	12.6	17.6	-4.98	16.7	15.5	1.24
Bruce Bowen	25	26	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.01	-11	18	-29	14.8	15.2	-0.41	15.7	16.2	-0.55

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Lang	13	12	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.04	2	-9	11	15.6	16.2	-0.55	15.6	15.0	0.60
Michael Curry	20	20	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-7	7	18.1	15.5	2.58	16.5	14.7	1.89
Ricky Pierce	6	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-5	3	21.0	15.7	5.26	17.8	14.9	2.96
Armen Gilliam	63	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.36	7	-14	21	16.4	15.4	0.95	15.5	14.1	1.34
Elliot Perry	16	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-4	1	18.2	15.6	2.55	15.3	15.0	0.28
Ervin Johnson	30	32	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.10	-15	8	-23	15.0	16.6	-1.67	13.0	16.1	-3.18
Ray Allen	79	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.23	-7	0	-7	15.8	18.2	-2.49	15.0	15.6	-0.64
Glenn Robinson	84	88	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-3	-1	15.8	19.7	-3.93	14.9	17.8	-2.96
Tyrone Hill	66	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-3	-1	16.4	15.3	1.06	15.8	13.0	2.81
Terrell Brandon	78	80	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.30	-9	2	-11	15.4	19.9	-4.47	14.5	18.2	-3.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.53,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 97, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.32,0.16,0.22,0.04,0	92.6%
HOU 90, GSW 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.24,0.37,0.22,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.35,0.61,0.38,0.36,0.24,0.04,0	92.3%
MIA 103, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.1,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.25,0.36,0.15,0.08,0	92.3%