NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	6.1 [561]		MVP	Chuck Person (SAS): +15.5%
Miami Heat	77		Comeback	1.6 [319]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -12.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chuck Person	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	11	71%	0.17	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
David Robinson	0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	18	63%	0.16	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02
Jaren Jackson	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.05	-0.01	11	42%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	4	10%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	19	51%	-0.00	4	-0.11	5	40%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	13	55%	0.08	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	0	50%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	25%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	13	49%	-0.07	1	-0.04	9	67%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	13	50%	0.03	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	17	45%	-0.06	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.7	26.3	15.6	23.3	1.7	26.4	117.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.0%

MIA -0.0%

SAS +1.3%

MIA -0.6%

SAS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	16.5	15.6	97.7	90.6	102.5
season	15.9	15.8		100.9	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.9		99.8	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.8	16.9	16.2	18.8	17.1
MIA	15.2	19.1	15.8	16.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	69	66	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-4	15	17.2	16.8	0.39	16.7	15.9	0.83
Avery Johnson	80	79	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.30	6	1	5	16.8	21.5	-4.69	16.3	19.8	-3.54
Monty Williams	31	28	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	1	5	18.1	16.6	1.55	18.4	15.6	2.71
Tim Duncan	81	80	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	3	1	16.8	22.8	-6.01	16.3	20.2	-3.89
Jaren Jackson	72	73	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	1	5	16.7	19.6	-2.99	16.1	19.2	-3.15
Chuck Person	63	63	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	4	-1	17.2	17.1	0.07	16.6	16.5	0.06
Cory Alexander	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	6	-5	21.5	16.8	4.69	19.8	16.3	3.54
Sean Elliott	6	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	8	-9	17.7	17.1	0.57	13.3	16.8	-3.45
Will Perdue	22	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.09	-1	8	-9	18.2	16.8	1.40	16.8	16.4	0.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	59	58	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.01	3	-10	13	16.5	16.6	-0.11	16.9	17.7	-0.80
Voshon Lenard	68	68	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-6	5	16.2	17.8	-1.60	16.7	18.8	-2.14
Tim Hardaway	74	75	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-7	7	16.3	18.4	-2.09	16.8	19.6	-2.86
Terry Mills	10	11	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-4	1	14.6	16.8	-2.20	10.5	18.1	-7.56
P.J. Brown	52	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-3	-1	17.2	15.4	1.83	19.4	13.8	5.58
Jamal Mashburn	72	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-6	5	15.9	20.2	-4.36	16.8	18.8	-2.01
Eric Murdock	11	11	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	0	-7	18.4	16.3	2.09	19.6	16.8	2.86
Dan Majerle	31	32	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.20	-14	7	-21	18.5	15.4	3.11	18.7	16.2	2.52
Ike Austin	48	51	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.40	-8	1	-9	16.4	16.7	-0.33	16.6	17.9	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 125, MIN 120	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.43,0.32,0.25,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.09,0	93.6%
NOP 99, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0	93.3%
DEN 111, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.03,0,0	93.0%