NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	2.4 [1204]		MVP	Dikembe Mutombo (ATL): +12.3%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	1.0 [886]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -7.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	14	67%	0.03	4	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	61%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	5	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	7	57%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.01	16	51%	-0.04	2	-0.03	13	69%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.02	12	71%	0.12	1	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	-0.00	0.07	8	86%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.01	0.05	9	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.08	8	44%	0.04	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	15	47%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	12	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	7	43%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	24.2	15.5	25.4	1.7	21.4	113.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +28.9%

ATL +1.9%

ATL +9.4%

ATL +9.1%

ATL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.2	15.6	107.9	124.1	102.5
season	15.9	16.1		100.9	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.9		101.5	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.2	19.2	16.4	13.7	16.6
ATL	14.8	16.0	15.5	18.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	10	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-12	12	14.3	16.8	-2.54	18.0	15.9	2.06
Will Perdue	46	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.30	8	-20	28	15.4	17.8	-2.44	16.8	15.5	1.25
Cory Alexander	37	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.41	10	-22	32	16.1	16.8	-0.71	17.4	15.3	2.05
Jaren Jackson	36	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-17	22	16.1	16.8	-0.74	17.3	15.5	1.79
Chuck Person	39	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-11	10	14.9	17.8	-2.85	16.8	15.7	1.14
Tim Duncan	69	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-6	0	17.2	14.4	2.77	16.4	15.4	0.94
Vinny Del Negro	53	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	5	-22	16.8	16.1	0.74	15.5	17.3	-1.79
Avery Johnson	52	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.26	-22	10	-32	16.8	16.1	0.71	15.3	17.4	-2.05
Sean Elliott	45	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.20	-22	10	-32	18.9	14.2	4.73	15.2	17.2	-2.00
David Robinson	58	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	3	-18	16.4	16.8	-0.44	15.5	17.5	-2.08

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	67	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.27	26	-14	40	15.9	17.1	-1.27	16.7	16.0	0.72
Tyrone Corbin	75	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.04	18	-6	24	16.0	17.1	-1.06	16.1	19.4	-3.32
Christian Laettner	48	51	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.08	17	-5	22	15.9	16.5	-0.52	17.3	15.5	1.83
Mookie Blaylock	66	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.17	20	-8	28	15.8	17.2	-1.34	16.6	16.4	0.16
Steven Smith	52	55	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.24	20	-8	28	15.7	16.9	-1.19	17.4	15.2	2.22
Ed Gray	35	34	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.39	-8	20	-28	16.9	15.7	1.19	15.2	17.4	-2.22
Eldridge Recasner	21	23	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.32	-8	20	-28	17.2	15.8	1.34	16.4	16.6	-0.16
Greg Anderson	16	17	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.21	-5	17	-22	17.2	15.9	1.32	18.6	16.1	2.59
Chucky Brown	48	47	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.32	-10	22	-32	16.4	15.8	0.59	16.4	16.7	-0.26
Chris Crawford	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	17.0	16.1	0.87	11.0	16.9	-5.88
Anthony Miller	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	16	-20	19.0	16.1	2.93	11.0	16.7	-5.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 88, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
MIA 77, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
IND 85, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%