NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	8.4 [164]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +22.6%
Sacramento Kings	97		Comeback	2.9 [492]		LVP	Lawrence Funderburke (SAC): -21.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	10	73%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Anthony Goldwire	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Priest Lauderdale	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.24	2	-0.21	2	100%	0.02
Eric Washington	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	14	39%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	5	57%	0.02	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
Dean Garrett	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.15	0.01	-0.15	0.01	8	57%	-0.15	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.20
Bobby Jackson	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.04	-0.01	11	37%	-0.05	6	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.23	0.23	0.04	0.18	-0.00	19	55%	0.26	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	2	83%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Terry Dehere	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.06
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	7	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.15,-0.06	-0.06	0.05	-0.10	0.01	14	69%	0.15	3	-0.21	7	86%	-0.03
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	7	33%	-0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	8	25%	-0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.6	25.2	15.4	27.4	1.7	36.5	133.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +21.6%

SAC +3.5%

DEN -8.6%

SAC +38.8%

DEN -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	15.8	15.2	15.6	100.0	104.3	102.5
season	16.2	15.2		96.7	98.5
opponent	15.3	15.2		104.3	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	15.8	17.0	13.9	15.8
SAC	13.2	13.6	14.3	20.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	44	44	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.00	6	-10	16	16.5	15.1	1.35	14.6	15.7	-1.12
Anthony Goldwire	43	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.35	7	-11	18	14.7	16.7	-1.98	17.1	13.7	3.47
Eric Washington	60	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-1	-2	16.4	14.5	1.93	13.3	18.7	-5.41
Priest Lauderdale	31	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-7	10	14.9	16.2	-1.34	17.7	14.1	3.61
Johnny Newman	57	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.28	1	-5	6	15.8	15.7	0.02	16.2	13.7	2.46
Danny Fortson	37	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	7	-18	16.4	15.4	1.02	15.7	14.9	0.77
Bobby Jackson	50	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	7	-18	16.7	14.7	1.98	13.7	17.1	-3.47
Dean Garrett	71	72	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.42	-9	5	-14	15.8	15.7	0.05	14.6	17.2	-2.57

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Billy Owens	55	54	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-5	14	13.3	17.9	-4.55	16.5	14.8	1.71
Michael Stewart	39	39	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	-1	6	16.9	14.0	2.96	14.8	16.4	-1.58
Corliss Williamson	78	78	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	4	-4	15.5	13.9	1.59	15.9	15.1	0.83
Mitch Richmond	75	75	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.38	1	3	-2	15.6	13.6	2.04	15.9	15.2	0.67
Anthony Johnson	50	49	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.27	2	2	0	16.6	13.6	2.98	15.2	16.4	-1.27
Lawrence Funderburke	44	44	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	1	2	16.7	13.8	2.93	15.0	16.4	-1.36
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	21	21	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	-1	6	13.0	15.8	-2.79	16.3	15.6	0.74
Terry Dehere	40	41	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	4	-4	13.9	16.2	-2.33	16.0	15.6	0.34
Olden Polynice	54	54	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	5	-6	14.0	16.9	-2.96	16.4	14.8	1.58
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	9	10	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.05	-4	8	-12	16.8	15.0	1.74	14.0	16.0	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.68,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.51,0.34,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.32,0.42,1	92.6%
BOS 112, LAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.56,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.92,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.73,1	90.7%
LAC 104, IND 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.62,0.46,0.53,0.73,1	90.5%