NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	100		Excitement	2.7 [1174]		MVP	Joe Dumars (DET): +12.1%
Dallas Mavericks	82		Comeback	1.4 [1148]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -11.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.01	-0.04	11	72%	0.12	2	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.03	7	79%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.01	19	67%	0.09	4	-0.05	14	79%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	61%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	37%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Litterial Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	10	42%	-0.02	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	10	35%	-0.05	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	83%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed O'Bannon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	47%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martin Muursepp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	0.01
Greg Dreiling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	4	10%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Stevin Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	14	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	14	39%	-0.08	1	-0.01	10	90%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	0.03	18	41%	-0.09	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	3.0	25.2	15.6	26.2	2.0	33.2	126.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +40.9%

DET +3.9%

DET +6.4%

DAL -2.8%

DET +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	16.5	15.6	114.9	93.2	104.4
season	17.1	15.9		107.6	99.1
opponent	15.7	16.2		105.5	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.7	14.9	15.7	16.6	16.4
DAL	17.4	19.4	18.6	11.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	66	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	3	12	17.4	13.2	4.20	15.4	19.8	-4.38
Otis Thorpe	69	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.21	22	-4	26	16.3	16.7	-0.37	16.8	15.5	1.29
Joe Dumars	72	72	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.08	17	1	16	17.0	13.7	3.33	16.6	16.1	0.52
Grant Hill	78	79	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.10	16	2	14	16.9	12.7	4.19	17.0	12.1	4.88
Theo Ratliff	51	54	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	5	8	17.0	15.6	1.44	17.3	15.2	2.09
Terry Mills	29	28	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.24	-2	20	-22	15.2	17.1	-1.88	17.8	15.9	1.90
Aaron McKie	24	25	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	13	-8	13.3	17.6	-4.33	18.3	15.8	2.56
Michael Curry	33	33	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	13	-8	16.2	16.5	-0.29	13.7	18.2	-4.47
Jerome Williams	11	12	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	18	-18	14.9	16.6	-1.74	14.7	16.8	-2.11
Litterial Green	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	0.0	16.8	-16.81	14.0	16.5	-2.55

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed O'Bannon	25	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-21	24	11.5	18.5	-6.94	16.6	16.3	0.27
Greg Dreiling	25	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-21	24	11.5	18.5	-6.94	16.6	16.3	0.27
Martin Muursepp	31	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-22	26	15.2	17.2	-1.95	16.4	16.4	-0.02
Stevin Smith	47	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	-16	14	15.3	17.9	-2.65	16.4	16.5	-0.09
Robert Pack	57	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-17	16	14.5	20.2	-5.67	17.2	14.9	2.34
Sasha Danilovic	21	20	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.17	-17	-1	-16	15.6	16.8	-1.14	12.6	17.6	-4.97
Shawn Bradley	43	39	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.15	-20	2	-22	19.2	13.9	5.23	16.7	16.2	0.44
Derek Harper	57	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.18	-21	3	-24	19.1	11.7	7.33	16.6	16.1	0.57
A.C. Green	62	61	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.13	-21	3	-24	18.7	11.2	7.57	16.3	16.6	-0.27
Michael Finley	72	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	0	-18	17.6	11.7	5.87	16.5	16.0	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 101, SAC 78	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
CLE 121, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
SAS 112, LAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.36,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%