NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	5.0 [792]		MVP	Vin Baker (MIL): +11.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	82		Comeback	3.5 [64]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -15.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	-0.01	0.02	14	74%	0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Elliot Perry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	5	86%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.03
Chucky Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	7	62%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Wood	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	8	31%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	6	55%	0.00	4	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Glenn Robinson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	18	49%	-0.03	6	-0.13	5	80%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	21	60%	0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	8	87%	0.08
Donny Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	0.03	12	63%	0.05	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.02
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	12	37%	-0.03	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.4	28.3	14.8	21.2	2.4	36.6	127.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.8%

MIL +5.2%

MIL +9.3%

MIL +6.6%

MIL +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CLE	NBA	MIL	CLE	NBA
this game	16.6	17.3	15.6	105.9	96.5	104.4
season	16.0	17.8		103.9	102.1
opponent	16.1	15.5		100.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	16.0	16.2	18.2	16.6
CLE	17.8	18.2	19.8	13.7	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Brown	51	51	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.19	14	-6	20	16.3	17.0	-0.73	16.7	18.2	-1.48
Vin Baker	84	83	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-2	12	16.6	13.0	3.61	16.9	36.0	-19.13
Johnny Newman	49	48	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-4	16	16.8	16.3	0.50	17.1	17.6	-0.44
Glenn Robinson	74	76	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	16.4	17.4	-0.92	17.0	19.9	-2.88
Elliot Perry	35	33	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	-6	20	16.8	16.4	0.45	17.8	17.0	0.87
Ray Allen	46	45	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	8	-8	16.9	16.2	0.71	17.9	16.7	1.17
Sherman Douglas	52	54	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.25	-5	13	-18	16.0	17.5	-1.45	16.6	18.5	-1.94
Joe Wolf	11	10	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	6	-4	21.5	15.8	5.72	21.3	16.8	4.51
David Wood	1	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	10	-12	0.0	16.8	-16.76	25.0	17.2	7.77
Armen Gilliam	22	24	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	19	-30	15.5	16.9	-1.44	19.3	16.5	2.81

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donny Marshall	5	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.07	-5	-3	-2	14.4	17.5	-3.10	18.4	16.4	1.95
Terrell Brandon	74	73	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-12	16	16.9	20.2	-3.29	16.2	18.8	-2.64
Tyrone Hill	70	69	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-7	6	17.4	16.9	0.55	16.0	18.8	-2.77
Vitaly Potapenko	24	26	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	2	-12	18.6	16.8	1.82	18.5	15.7	2.73
Bobby Phills	69	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-2	-4	17.1	18.3	-1.23	16.2	17.8	-1.57
Chris Mills	80	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-5	2	17.5	14.4	3.10	16.4	18.4	-1.95
Danny Ferry	76	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	-3	-2	16.8	21.6	-4.74	16.4	17.9	-1.51
Bob Sura	27	29	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	6	-20	19.1	16.5	2.57	18.2	15.7	2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.33,0.14,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 94, NJN 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.03,0,0,0	94.5%
POR 96, MIL 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.15,0.04,0.03,0,0	94.1%
SAC 118, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.03,0.09,0.02,0	93.5%