NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	83		Excitement	5.5 [683]		MVP	Chris Mills (CLE): +15.4%
Indiana Pacers	75		Comeback	1.9 [281]		LVP	Fred Hoiberg (IND): -18.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.08	-0.00	12	68%	0.17	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tyrone Hill	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	7	86%	0.15	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donny Marshall	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	20	49%	-0.01	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Bob Sura	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	10	48%	0.04	4	-0.12	3	33%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	14	69%	0.24	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.03
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	6	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.03
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	75%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Rik Smits	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	17	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	8	52%	0.02	3	-0.10	7	57%	-0.03
Duane Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.03	-0.12	0.04	5	33%	-0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	1.7	28.4	16.4	21.4	1.8	35.0	126.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +31.7%

CLE +0.5%

CLE +6.0%

CLE +10.0%

CLE +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	IND	NBA	CLE	IND	NBA
this game	17.8	16.3	15.6	96.5	90.4	104.4
season	17.8	15.3		102.1	103.6
opponent	16.3	16.1		101.9	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	19.1	20.5	16.0	15.9	17.8
IND	14.5	16.3	19.4	15.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrell Brandon	76	75	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.23	17	-9	26	17.4	20.2	-2.75	16.3	16.4	-0.09
Tyrone Hill	72	71	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	0	8	17.8	17.6	0.23	16.6	14.2	2.38
Chris Mills	74	71	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.19	9	-1	10	18.1	15.5	2.64	16.3	16.2	0.14
Danny Ferry	46	45	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.03	13	-5	18	18.7	16.7	2.00	16.5	16.1	0.39
Bobby Phills	64	61	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	4	0	18.4	15.8	2.62	16.6	15.5	1.01
Vitaly Potapenko	30	29	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.17	-2	10	-12	16.1	18.7	-2.61	16.1	16.4	-0.34
Donny Marshall	12	12	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.08	-1	9	-10	15.5	18.1	-2.64	16.2	16.3	-0.14
Bob Sura	32	30	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.15	-5	13	-18	17.2	18.1	-0.92	15.8	16.6	-0.82
Mark West	24	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	11	-14	18.0	17.7	0.32	15.0	16.7	-1.66

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Allen	25	25	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-14	20	17.4	15.8	1.53	17.6	17.9	-0.29
Duane Ferrell	33	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-6	4	16.1	16.4	-0.28	20.3	16.1	4.20
Antonio Davis	44	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-11	14	15.8	16.8	-0.95	16.5	19.3	-2.72
Eddie Johnson	37	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-4	0	16.7	16.0	0.70	15.8	19.2	-3.39
Fred Hoiberg	31	33	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.39	5	-13	18	16.4	16.2	0.10	16.6	18.5	-1.88
Rik Smits	58	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.32	1	-9	10	16.5	15.8	0.64	18.1	17.0	1.10
Travis Best	36	40	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	3	-14	16.6	16.0	0.62	17.2	18.3	-1.06
Reggie Miller	65	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.04	-15	7	-22	16.1	16.9	-0.77	18.1	16.6	1.53
Dale Davis	64	65	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.06	-20	12	-32	16.4	15.8	0.58	18.4	16.0	2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 108, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	92.9%
GSW 102, DET 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.21,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.34,0.19,0.07,0.05,0,0	92.6%
WAS 118, GSW 109	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.22,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.3,0.04,0.14,0.11,0.06,0,0	92.5%