NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	87		Excitement	6.1 [566]		MVP	Joe Dumars (DET): +25.4%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	1.5 [926]		LVP	Rony Seikaly (ORL): -12.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.06	0.00	13	67%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Derek Strong	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	15	55%	0.05	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.01	-0.01	15	43%	0.01	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.06
Dennis Scott	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.04	0.03	10	35%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	5	75%	0.04	6	-0.16	6	100%	0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.12	0.12	-0.01	14	75%	0.29	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	8	65%	0.11	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	7	43%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	55%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	47%	0.01	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	19	62%	0.09	5	-0.13	12	75%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	6	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	29.2	18.4	25.3	2.8	27.2	130.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +36.1%

ORL -5.9%

DET +22.3%

ORL -0.2%

ORL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	17.9	15.6	104.8	112.9	104.4
season	16.4	17.1		102.9	107.6
opponent	16.2	15.5		102.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.9	17.0	16.9	14.0	16.4
DET	18.1	18.1	18.2	17.3	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wilkins	47	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-9	9	15.6	17.3	-1.67	17.0	19.1	-2.04
Anfernee Hardaway	64	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-5	1	17.3	13.1	4.29	17.5	19.2	-1.61
Darrell Armstrong	13	12	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-5	1	14.5	16.7	-2.16	16.8	18.1	-1.25
Horace Grant	70	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.15	-3	-6	3	16.4	16.2	0.15	17.4	21.0	-3.60
Derek Strong	23	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-2	-5	16.1	16.5	-0.38	17.9	17.9	-0.05
Dennis Scott	60	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-5	1	16.7	15.5	1.16	18.2	17.2	0.98
Brian Shaw	17	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-2	-5	14.8	16.8	-2.01	18.7	17.7	1.04
Nick Anderson	71	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.23	-4	-5	1	16.2	17.6	-1.43	18.3	15.0	3.34
Rony Seikaly	50	49	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	3	-15	16.8	15.7	1.10	19.0	16.4	2.68

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	76	74	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-1	11	18.3	14.9	3.37	16.2	17.6	-1.34
Lindsey Hunter	63	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-2	13	18.2	17.0	1.22	16.6	15.4	1.22
Terry Mills	47	46	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	5	-1	17.5	18.4	-0.84	15.2	17.8	-2.66
Michael Curry	44	43	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	5	-1	17.2	18.7	-1.50	16.1	16.6	-0.51
Joe Dumars	70	68	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	4	1	17.7	19.0	-1.33	16.7	14.8	1.91
Aaron McKie	34	31	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.13	4	5	-1	17.1	18.4	-1.31	15.2	17.1	-1.92
Theo Ratliff	46	44	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	6	-3	17.8	18.1	-0.27	16.8	15.8	1.02
Otis Thorpe	20	20	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	3	3	20.2	17.2	3.07	17.9	15.9	2.03
Don Reid	21	20	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	10	-11	18.2	17.8	0.38	16.9	16.2	0.71
Jerome Williams	4	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	10	-11	17.5	17.9	-0.43	18.2	16.2	1.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 84, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	95.0%
POR 91, NOK 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.74,0.74,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.95,1,1	95.0%
PHX 101, NJN 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.71,0.67,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1	94.1%