NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	88		Excitement	7.7 [297]		MVP	Elliot Perry (MIL): +51.9%
Indiana Pacers	86		Comeback	8.7 [88]		LVP	Reggie Miller (IND): -23.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elliot Perry	0.52	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.52	0.07	0.45	0.00	11	73%	0.59	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.06
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	10	50%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,-0.02	0.07	-0.07	0.01	16	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Andrew Lang	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	18	46%	0.03	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Armen Gilliam	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vincent Askew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.03	9	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	12	59%	0.06	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.08,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rik Smits	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	11	38%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.20	-0.05	-0.02	10	29%	-0.08	5	-0.14	4	25%	-0.05
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.24	-0.24	-0.04	-0.21	-0.01	14	59%	-0.10	4	-0.14	13	92%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.0	23.3	15.6	29.2	1.7	32.0	130.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +64.7%

MIL +2.8%

IND -18.2%

MIL +2.4%

IND -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	15.1	15.6	95.7	94.5	104.4
season	16.0	15.3		103.9	103.6
opponent	16.3	15.5		101.9	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.5	16.2	16.9	17.1	16.4
IND	13.9	14.4	14.4	18.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elliot Perry	52	52	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.46	8	-6	14	16.3	16.4	-0.10	16.7	12.9	3.85
Glenn Robinson	88	86	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.49	6	-4	10	16.5	14.5	1.95	14.9	18.2	-3.28
Vin Baker	79	78	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.48	5	-3	8	16.5	15.5	0.97	15.5	12.8	2.72
Ray Allen	56	57	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	1	0	16.7	15.9	0.79	15.5	14.5	0.96
Johnny Newman	40	40	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	3	-4	15.7	16.8	-1.10	14.6	15.5	-0.89
Andrew Lang	60	58	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.26	-8	10	-18	17.0	15.1	1.96	14.6	16.0	-1.41
Armen Gilliam	40	40	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	-3	8	15.4	17.1	-1.72	16.1	14.3	1.83
Chucky Brown	5	5	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	2	-2	13.8	16.5	-2.72	9.8	15.4	-5.61
Sherman Douglas	40	39	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	8	-14	16.4	16.3	0.10	12.9	16.7	-3.85

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	33	33	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.07	4	-6	10	14.2	15.6	-1.34	14.6	17.4	-2.75
Antonio Davis	58	59	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.30	-5	3	-8	15.3	14.8	0.54	16.5	16.2	0.25
Eddie Johnson	21	19	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.00	5	-7	12	15.1	15.1	-0.00	15.2	16.7	-1.46
Vincent Askew	36	34	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	4	-10	15.4	14.9	0.57	15.0	17.2	-2.22
Rik Smits	54	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-2	2	15.4	14.6	0.76	16.0	16.9	-0.85
Dale Davis	69	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-5	8	14.9	15.7	-0.77	16.8	15.1	1.68
Reggie Miller	68	71	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.53	1	-3	4	14.6	16.7	-2.08	16.9	14.6	2.27
Travis Best	58	59	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.53	-6	4	-10	15.6	14.2	1.34	17.4	14.6	2.75
Derrick McKey	58	61	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.53	-6	4	-10	15.2	14.8	0.39	16.6	15.8	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.66,0.78,0.66,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.84,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.68,0.58,0	92.3%
POR 110, SEA 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.89,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.58,0	91.2%
DET 93, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.73,0	91.1%