NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	86		Excitement	6.8 [446]		MVP	Chris Mills (CLE): +16.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	94		Comeback	4.6 [312]		LVP	Sherman Douglas (MIL): -19.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	17	62%	0.16	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Armen Gilliam	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	4	78%	0.12	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.08
Elliot Perry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Chucky Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	31%	-0.04	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	10	48%	-0.08	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Sherman Douglas	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.13,-0.19,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	10	35%	-0.05	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	12	72%	0.19	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.02	-0.01	22	62%	0.24	2	-0.15	4	75%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	10	68%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.01	8	72%	0.16	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.03	-0.03	2	40%	-0.00	2	-0.02	6	67%	0.06
Antonio Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-0.01	10	29%	-0.07	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	0.7	25.5	14.8	21.5	1.8	31.5	122.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +45.1%

MIL -2.3%

CLE +8.9%

CLE +4.5%

MIL -6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CLE	NBA	MIL	CLE	NBA
this game	17.4	16.1	15.6	101.2	108.0	104.4
season	16.0	17.8		103.9	102.1
opponent	16.1	15.5		100.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.2	17.6	17.3	17.6	17.4
CLE	14.1	17.6	14.7	18.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elliot Perry	31	31	0.48	-0.99	1.47	0.07	14	-22	36	17.7	17.2	0.47	17.9	15.1	2.86
Chucky Brown	12	12	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.03	9	-17	26	17.9	17.3	0.59	15.1	16.3	-1.17
Johnny Newman	34	35	-0.03	-0.48	0.45	-0.29	9	-17	26	18.1	17.0	1.13	18.3	14.6	3.67
Armen Gilliam	57	59	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.30	7	-15	22	17.0	18.2	-1.14	17.2	13.7	3.45
Ray Allen	63	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	4	-16	17.3	17.6	-0.24	15.7	17.2	-1.60
Andrew Lang	28	28	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	7	-22	18.2	17.0	1.14	13.7	17.2	-3.45
Glenn Robinson	73	76	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	5	-18	17.2	19.0	-1.85	15.4	20.5	-5.10
Vin Baker	73	75	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.25	-17	9	-26	17.3	17.9	-0.59	16.3	15.1	1.17
Sherman Douglas	54	56	-0.99	0.48	-1.47	-0.34	-22	14	-36	17.2	17.7	-0.47	15.1	17.9	-2.86

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrell Brandon	75	73	0.70	-0.19	0.89	0.23	16	-8	24	15.1	22.2	-7.14	17.7	15.6	2.13
Danny Ferry	78	76	0.68	-0.17	0.85	0.18	17	-9	26	15.4	22.2	-6.84	17.6	16.2	1.33
Tyrone Hill	53	54	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-6	20	16.5	15.5	1.02	17.8	16.7	1.16
Chris Mills	78	76	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	0	8	16.1	16.1	-0.02	17.4	17.7	-0.29
Bob Sura	42	39	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.31	-2	10	-12	17.5	14.8	2.77	17.1	17.7	-0.57
Mark West	13	12	-0.00	0.51	-0.51	-0.03	1	7	-6	16.2	16.1	0.07	16.1	17.6	-1.55
Bobby Phills	65	65	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	10	-12	16.1	16.0	0.12	17.4	17.3	0.15
Vitaly Potapenko	11	11	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	12	-16	14.2	16.4	-2.19	15.3	17.7	-2.46
Antonio Lang	20	19	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.03	-8	16	-24	19.4	15.1	4.30	17.2	17.5	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.2,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.18,0.47,0.72,0.84,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	91.7%
IND 95, NOP 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.72,0.9,1,1	91.5%
ORL 88, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.78,0.74,1	90.9%