NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	11.1 [34]		MVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): +75.9%
Phoenix Suns	109		Comeback	26.9 [29]		LVP	Kevin Johnson (PHX): -45.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0.76	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.76,0.76,0.76	0.22	0.53	-0.01	21	78%	0.81	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.08	0.01	20	50%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.06
Ervin Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	80%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
LaSalle Thompson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Booker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Ellis	-0.26	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.31,-0.41,-0.41,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.32,-0.26	-0.08	-0.17	0.01	23	49%	-0.07	5	-0.19	3	67%	-0.01
Mark Jackson	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.2,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.12	-0.17	0.01	15	44%	-0.03	5	-0.27	2	100%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rex Chapman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.10	0.01	17	50%	0.15	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	11	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.03	0.02	14	43%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.05	0.05	13	54%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hot Rod Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.14	-0.01	14	50%	-0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.39,-0.39,-0.46,-0.46,-0.46,-0.46,-0.46,-0.45	-0.45	-0.17	-0.24	0.04	17	34%	-0.28	4	-0.17	4	25%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.1	2.5	22.9	15.7	22.6	2.4	33.4	2.3	20.2	144.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	1.6	17.8	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +95.2%

PHX -0.2%

PHX -36.8%

PHX -17.7%

DEN +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	15.0	14.4	15.6	102.8	101.9	104.4
season	15.2	14.6		102.3	106.8
opponent	15.6	15.3		106.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.8	16.6	13.5	18.7	8.9	15.0
PHX	14.9	14.1	16.5	14.0	11.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	84	81	0.61	-0.12	0.73	0.41	7	-4	11	14.6	16.4	-1.83	14.6	13.8	0.75
Ervin Johnson	83	81	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.45	5	-2	7	14.5	16.7	-2.24	14.3	14.8	-0.57
Dale Ellis	104	101	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.44	5	-2	7	14.7	20.8	-6.05	14.6	11.5	3.08
Mark Jackson	100	99	0.38	0.11	0.27	0.41	-1	4	-5	14.7	18.4	-3.72	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Bryant Stith	101	98	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	5	-7	14.8	18.2	-3.48	14.2	17.0	-2.83
Brooks Thompson	13	15	0.02	0.47	-0.45	-0.07	3	0	3	19.2	14.5	4.77	14.8	14.3	0.45
LaSalle Thompson	6	6	-0.02	0.51	-0.53	0.01	-1	4	-5	13.0	15.1	-2.15	11.2	14.6	-3.44
Tom Hammonds	45	46	-0.21	0.70	-0.91	-0.06	-5	8	-13	17.1	13.6	3.47	14.8	14.1	0.61

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Bryant	33	35	0.07	-0.56	0.63	0.07	0	-3	3	15.2	14.1	1.07	17.3	14.0	3.28
Sam Cassell	42	42	0.06	-0.55	0.61	0.03	1	-4	5	14.2	14.5	-0.28	17.7	13.4	4.33
A.C. Green	53	53	-0.00	-0.49	0.49	-0.00	0	-3	3	15.7	13.1	2.55	14.6	15.4	-0.79
Wesley Person	61	62	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.09	2	-5	7	14.5	14.3	0.26	13.1	17.6	-4.48
Robert Horry	6	7	-0.09	-0.40	0.31	0.03	-4	1	-5	16.0	14.3	1.68	17.0	14.9	2.11
Danny Manning	53	55	-0.36	-0.13	-0.23	-0.33	-1	-2	1	13.1	15.7	-2.61	15.4	14.7	0.72
Michael Finley	92	93	-0.43	-0.06	-0.37	-0.49	2	-5	7	14.3	15.1	-0.76	14.7	16.9	-2.17
Rex Chapman	52	54	-0.47	-0.02	-0.45	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	13.1	15.7	-2.56	15.6	14.5	1.08
Kevin Johnson	65	67	-0.55	0.06	-0.61	-0.43	-4	1	-5	14.5	14.2	0.28	13.4	17.7	-4.33
Hot Rod Williams	78	77	-0.65	0.16	-0.81	-0.39	-9	6	-15	14.9	13.1	1.84	15.4	14.1	1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.59,0.45,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.36,0.32,0.84,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.41,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 115, LAC 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.57,0.45,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.23,0.85,0.54,0.39,0.71,0.57,0.31,0	89.9%
DET 124, IND 120	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.59,0.73,0.61,0.46,0.66,0.85,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.68,0.27,0	89.3%
LAL 88, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.55,0.63,0.32,0.73,0.46,0.55,0.28,0.32,0.27,0	89.0%